Jared Koch#1 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 25, 2026
Koch argues Kayshon Boutte is a winner in the trade to Houston, likely to see many more snaps and potentially post a career season, while Xavier Hutchinson's path to a breakout gets harder. They also see Kamari Ramsey stepping up as the primary backup safety behind a top three of Bullock, Pitre and Blankenship, and views Jared Wayne as a fringe roster player squeezed by receivers they call virtual locks.
Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original
What Jared Koch said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromThe makings truly could be there for Boutte to have a career season in Houston, and win a ton of games while he's at it.
- Where it was published
- Sports Illustrated
- The piece
- Biggest Winners and Losers of Texans' Kayshon Boutte Trade
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidAug 25
- GradedSep 25–Oct 25
- 1Tank Dell to make the roster“But with four to five virtual roster locks, depending on Tank Dell's status, Lewis Bond, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and Zay Jones”
- 2Lewis Bond to make the roster“four to five virtual roster locks... Lewis Bond, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and Zay Jones”
- 3C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart“the Texans' starting quarterback: C.J. Stroud”
- 4Sterling Shepard to make the roster“four to five virtual roster locks... Lewis Bond, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and Zay Jones”
- 5Justin Watson to make the roster“four to five virtual roster locks... Lewis Bond, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and Zay Jones”
- 6Kamari Ramsey to be 4th on the depth chart“The Texans have a clear top three in their safety room that'll place ahead of Ramsey on the depth chart: Calen Bullock, Jalen Pitre, and Reed Blankenship... Ramsey becomes the next man up as the primary backup”
- 7Zay Jones to make the roster“four to five virtual roster locks... Lewis Bond, Justin Watson, Sterling Shepard, and Zay Jones”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tank Dell to make the roster1 | Roster Spot Calls | 1 week on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Lewis Bond to make the roster2 | Roster Spot Calls | 1 week on a 53 | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Sterling Shepard to make the roster4 | Roster Spot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Justin Watson to make the roster5 | Roster Spot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Kamari Ramsey to be 4th on the depth chart6 | Depth Chart Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Zay Jones to make the roster7 | Roster Spot Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 7 calls · 2 hits · 5 waiting | 100 | 0 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive7 checkable claims — 5 roster spot calls and 2 depth chart calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Roster Spot CallsTank DellHouston Texans
Tank Dell to make the roster
What happened1 week on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tank Dell
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 7
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 0
2Roster Spot CallsLewis BondHouston Texans
Lewis Bond to make the roster
What happened1 week on a 53100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Lewis Bond
- season:
- 2026
- claimed:
- he makes the 53
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he was on somebody's 53 last season, so he makes one again
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks on the53:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- first week on the53:
- 2
- weeks on the practice squad:
- 2
3Depth Chart CallsC.J. StroudHouston Texans
C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Roster Spot CallsSterling ShepardHouston Texans
Sterling Shepard to make the roster
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Roster Spot CallsJustin WatsonHouston Texans
Justin Watson to make the roster
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Depth Chart CallsKamari RamseyHouston Texans
Kamari Ramsey to be 4th on the depth chart
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Roster Spot CallsZay JonesHouston Texans
Zay Jones to make the roster
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Bobby Skinner · Trade and Signing Calls · Stefon Diggs · Miss 0
Skinner predicted Daniel Jones signs with and wins the starting job in Indianapolis, Milton Williams to New England, Lavonte David back to Tampa, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams to the Giants, DJ Reid to Arizona, Hassan Reddick to Washington and Justin Fields staying in Pittsburgh, plus alternates they had listed.Chris Simms · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Hit 81
Simms gave a predicted final score for every Week 9 game, picking the Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos, Lions, Giants, Rams, Cowboys, Saints, 49ers, Patriots, Seahawks, Texans, Bears and Bills, and also said they wouldn't be shocked to see Jacksonville reach the AFC Championship Game.Connor Rogers · Game Outcome Picks · Houston Texans · Hit 100
Rogers picked straight-up winners in every Week 9 game, agreeing with Simms on all of them, and gave a 24-20 Bills score over the Vikings on Monday night.Nick Wright · Score Predictions · Houston Texans · Hit 83
Wright made several outright game calls for Week 9 alongside their spread picks: Kansas City beating the Jets 31-20, Detroit winning at Miami, New England edging Green Bay by a field goal or so, Carolina winning outright over Denver, and Houston blowing out the Chargers 27-12.
More roster spot calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.