Clarence HillJan 16, 2026

Clarence picked Buffalo over Denver, Seattle over San Francisco, and New England over Houston, in each case siding with the better quarterback. They also insisted Jake Ferguson will no longer be on the Cowboys in 2027.

Said on air, transcribed by us · DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting

66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3 of 4Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Clarence Hill said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I picked Buffalo. I picked a better quarterback.

Clarence Hill, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: DLLS Dallas Cowboys (podcast)
The episode: Cowboys Mock Draft Roundup: Who Is the Best Pick at No. 12? | DLLS Cowboys Podcast
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidJan 16
GradedAug 14–17

1Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners“I picked Seattle... So I think that that the Seattle defense... They're gonna get some turnovers from the Fortnite as quarterback.”
2Buffalo Bills to beat Denver“Oh, you picked Buffalo. I did pick Buffalo. Because I picked Buffalo. I picked a better quarterback.”
3New England Patriots to beat Texans“Took New England. I drew I took the better quarterback.”
4Jake Ferguson to move to Dallas Cowboys“Tight end, Ferg would not be on the team in 2027. I would be standing on the table... Will not be here in 2027.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners¹	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−100
New England Patriots to beat Texans³	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	100	0
Jake Ferguson to move to Dallas Cowboys⁴	Trade and Signing Calls	—	—	—	—
4 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 1 waiting			66.7	100

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Seahawks by 6.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 72%.
How this was scored
won:
SEA
score:
6-41
skill:
0
they picked:
SEA
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
SEA
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to beat Denver
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1difficulty−100skill
Closing line (Jan 17): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 48%, Broncos 52%.
How this was scored
won:
DEN
score:
30-33
skill:
−100
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DEN
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks New England Patriots
New England Patriots to beat Texans
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1difficulty0skill
Closing line (Jan 18): Patriots by 3 · favorite pick, Patriots 62%.
How this was scored
won:
NE
score:
16-28
skill:
0
they picked:
NE
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
0
Think this is wrong?
4Trade and Signing Calls Jake Ferguson Dallas Cowboys
Jake Ferguson to move to Dallas Cowboys
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 100