Marcus Mosher· Nov 26, 2024
Mosher's Week 13 power rankings keep the Lions at No. 1 and move the Broncos into the top 10, while also projecting Detroit for the NFC North and top NFC seed, Houston to win the AFC South, Seattle to win the NFC West and host a playoff game, playoff spots for Green Bay, Denver and the Chargers, and nine-plus wins for Tampa Bay.
“The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Nov 27, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
10 checkable claims — 3 division winners, 3 playoff picks, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 86.6 out of 100, against 50.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seeding, Byes and Home FieldDetroit LionsNov 26, 2024
Detroit Lions to take the top seed
“the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 133
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- bye
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Division WinnersHouston TexansNov 26, 2024
Houston Texans to win the division
“Houston will win the AFC South, but this team is not a Super Bowl contender.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- yes
- Division WinnersSeattle SeahawksNov 26, 2024
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“And with back-to-back divisional wins, they've set themselves up well to win the NFC West and host a home playoff game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- no
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsNov 26, 2024
Detroit Lions to win the division
“With a 10-1 record, the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- yes
- Power RankingsNov 26, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 13 of the 2024 season”
Hit · 98Scored 97.73a naive guess scored 67.38+40.37 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 40.37
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 97.73
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersNov 26, 2024
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksDenver BroncosNov 26, 2024
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Denver's defense has been incredible this season, and it is well on its way to earning a Wild Card spot in the AFC.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersNov 26, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“The Chargers are still a contender in the AFC and should have no problem being the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the conference.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+133 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Season Win TotalsTampa Bay BuccaneersNov 26, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 9 wins
“With a favorable schedule coming up, Tampa Bay could easily get to nine or more wins this season.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 75+6.65 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- 6.65
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- Team Draft Slot CallsLas Vegas RaidersNov 26, 2024
Las Vegas Raiders to pick “top-three pick” (picks 1–3)
“the Raiders need to land a top-three pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to find their next franchise quarterback”
Hit · 88Scored 87.81a naive guess scored 64.84+30.55 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 13 the year before
- skill:
- 30.55
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 64.84
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top-three pick (picks 1–3)
- weeks left when called:
- 6
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Daniel DiBerardinisDivision Winners · Atlanta FalconsMiss · 0Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. He also gives a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · New York GiantsMiss · 0Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. He also expects Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and he floats the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.
- Colin CowherdDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. He also names the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.
- Danny ParkinsDivision Winners · Baltimore RavensMiss · 0Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Rich EisenDivision Winners · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.