Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 26, 2024
Mosher's Week 13 power rankings keep the Lions at No. 1 and move the Broncos into the top 10, while also projecting Detroit for the NFC North and top NFC seed, Houston to win the AFC South, Seattle to win the NFC West and host a playoff game, playoff spots for Green Bay, Denver and the Chargers, and nine-plus wins for Tampa Bay.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 13 Power Rankings: Lions Keep Top Spot, Broncos Enter Top 10 | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Nov 27, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidNov 26, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Division Winners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Power Rankings | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Playoff Picks | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Season Win Totals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team Draft Slot Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
How each call scored
10 checkable claims — 3 division winners, 3 playoff picks, 1 power ranking, 1 season win total, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 10 have settled, averaging 86.6 out of 100, against 50.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Detroit Lions to take the top seed
“the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.33 difficulty = +133 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 133
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- checked as:
- the number one seed is the bye, which the bracket names exactly
- actual tier:
- bye
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- where they finished last season (host)
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- claimed seed:
- 1
- claimed tier:
- bye
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Division Winners2 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Houston Texans to win the division
“Houston will win the AFC South, but this team is not a Super Bowl contender.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.33 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- yes
Seattle Seahawks to win the division
“And with back-to-back divisional wins, they've set themselves up well to win the NFC West and host a home playoff game.”
0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.33 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- no
Detroit Lions to win the division
“With a 10-1 record, the Lions are well on their way to winning the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.”
100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.33 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
- won the division:
- yes
Power Rankings1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
“Here are our updated power rankings going into Week 13 of the 2024 season”
97.73Hit97.73 − 67.38 naive = 30.35 × 1.33 difficulty = +40.37 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 40.37
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 97.73
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Playoff Picks3 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“The Packers are a lock to be in the playoffs and will be one of the toughest wild-card teams we've seen in recent years.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.33 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Denver Broncos to make the playoffs
“Denver's defense has been incredible this season, and it is well on its way to earning a Wild Card spot in the AFC.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.33 difficulty = +133 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- DEN
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“The Chargers are still a contender in the AFC and should have no problem being the No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the conference.”
Made the playoffs100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.33 difficulty = +133 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 133
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Season Win Totals1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to finish with 9 wins
“With a favorable schedule coming up, Tampa Bay could easily get to nine or more wins this season.”
10called 980Hit80 − 75 naive = 5 × 1.33 difficulty = +6.65 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- naive:
- 8.75
- skill:
- 6.65
- what happened:
- 10
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 80
- baseline:
- 75
- they said:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Team Draft Slot Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Las Vegas Raiders to pick “top-three pick” (picks 1–3)
“the Raiders need to land a top-three pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to find their next franchise quarterback”
Picked at 687.81Hit87.81 − 64.84 naive = 22.97 × 1.33 difficulty = +30.55 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LV
- draft:
- 2025
- naive:
- they picked 13 the year before
- skill:
- 30.55
- season:
- 2024
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 87.81
- baseline:
- 64.84
- actual pick:
- 6
- difficulty:
- 1.33
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted pick:
- top-three pick (picks 1–3)
- weeks left when called:
- 6
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
Carney predicts Geno Smith signs with the Vikings and starts for them, that at least four of the fringe veteran quarterbacks (Tua, Kyler, Cousins, Fields, Geno) will be starters next season, and that Mike Evans stays with Tampa Bay. They also rank their top fantasy wide receivers and comments on running back landing spots and trade values.
More division winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Daniel DiBerardinis · Division Winners · Atlanta Falcons · Miss 0
Danny D predicts Sonny Styles goes in the top ten (maybe top five), doesn't think Ty Simpson goes before late first round, says Kenyon Sadiq lands with the Rams at 13, and picks the Falcons to win the NFC South while naming the Bengals an AFC bounce-back team. They also give a Final Four of Michigan, Florida, Purdue and Arizona with Michigan winning.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · New York Giants · Miss 0
Cowherd projects the NFC East with the Giants winning the division ahead of Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas, pegging the Cowboys as a six- or seven-win team. They also expect Malik Willis to land a big free-agent deal, Kayvon Thibodeaux to be moved, and Baltimore to lose Isaiah Likely, and they float the Rams reaching on Ty Simpson late in round one.Colin Cowherd · Division Winners · Baltimore Ravens · Miss 0
Cowherd likes Jacksonville, Chicago and Pittsburgh (with DK Metcalf back) in the wild-card round, ranks the league's head coaches with McVay first and Ben Johnson seventh, and predicts Lamar Jackson has about two strong years left. They also name the Rams as a possible team to draft a receiver and floats next year's draft having seven first-round quarterbacks.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Rich Eisen · Division Winners · Jacksonville Jaguars · Hit 100
Eisen called the 49ers-as-NFC-favorites take an overreaction, picked the Jaguars to beat the Titans and win their division, leaned Ravens over the Steelers in the Week 18 Sunday night game, expects the Bills to beat the Jets even without Josh Allen, sees the Chargers as the AFC's seventh seed, agreed Tyler Shough could win Offensive Rookie of the Year with a good Saints 2026, said Malik Willis will be a starter somewhere next season, and insisted Detroit goes into 2026 with Goff.