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Randy Gurzi#74 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 25, 2026

Predicted Seattle would survive a slow start and pull away in the second half for a two-touchdown road win over Washington, 27-13.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

21Miss · out of 100
Commanders 33–31What happenedcalled Seahawks by 14 · lost by 2
96.35A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
21.43This callout of 100
#74Randy Gurzi’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Randy Gurzi said

Final score: Seahawks 27, Commanders 13
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks 27 — Commanders 13
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Seahawks vs. Commanders Predictions Week 3: Expert Roundup Could Be Kiss of Death
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidSep 25
  2. PlayedSep 27
  3. GradedSep 28

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 21.4 out of 100, against 96.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 27 — Commanders 13

    What happenedCommanders 33–31called Seahawks by 14 · lost by 2
    21.43Miss · naive 96.35
    21.43this call96.35a naive guess−74.92worse than naive1.89difficulty−141.61skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Seahawks by 8.5, total 40.5 · this 27–13 calls a bigger Seahawks win (by 14) and fewer points (40).

    How this was scored
    score:
    31-33
    skill:
    −141.61
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    21.43
    baseline:
    96.35
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    2
    weeks left when called:
    16
    naive home margin:
    0.47
    predicted margin:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

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