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Matt HarmonSep 17, 2026

Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. They took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting
60Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
48.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Harmon said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I think he comes out here and has a monster week two, and, ultimately, that Bengals pick it just enough of these matchups. I think they win this game.
Matt Harmon, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Football 301 with Nate Tice (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 2 preview & bold predictions: Giants' one big advantage, can Jaguars offense keep rolling?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 20–21
  3. GradedSep 29
  1. 1Los Angeles Rams to beat Giants“I'm gonna still say the Rams win this game... I think Stafford gets back on track, and they have a fireworks show on offense.”
  2. 2Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos“Oh, god. I'll go Jacksonville. I need to I need to see a good outing for Denver before I get back on the horse.”
  3. 3Cincinnati Bengals to beat Texans“ultimately, that Bengals pick it just enough of these matchups. I think they win this game.”
  4. 4Chicago Bears to beat Vikings“I'll go bears, especially just because I don't know a quarterback from Minnesota.”
  5. 5Philadelphia Eagles to hold Titans to 0“I think the Titans score zero points against the Eagles in week one [Week 2 Hail Mary]”
  6. 6Availability Calls“He has a grade one hamstring... I would guess he probably misses this game and, you know, maybe then comes back in week three. (Week 2)”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Los Angeles Rams to beat Giants1Game Outcome PicksRams 28–61001000
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos2Game Outcome PicksBroncos 20–130100−194
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Texans3Game Outcome PicksBengals 20–61000+194
Chicago Bears to beat Vikings4Game Outcome PicksVikings 9–3000
Philadelphia Eagles to hold Titans to 05Score PredictionsEagles 24–2010042.56+111.43
“He has a grade one hamstring... I would guess he probably…”6Availability Calls————
6 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting6048.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 4 game outcome picks, 1 availability call and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 48.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksLos Angeles Rams

    Los Angeles Rams to beat Giants

    What happenedRams 28–6Giants at Rams
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 21): Rams by 6.5 · favorite pick, Rams 72%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    LAR
    score:
    6-28
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    LAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    LAR
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos

    What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.94difficulty−194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    −194
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Texans

    What happenedBengals 20–6Bengals at Texans
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3 · underdog pick, Bengals 43%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    20-6
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears to beat Vikings

    What happenedVikings 9–3Vikings at Bears
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Bears by 4.5 · favorite pick, Bears about 2 in 3 (66%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    9-3
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to hold Titans to 0

    What happenedEagles 24–20Eagles at Titans
    100Hit · naive 42.56
    100this call42.56a naive guess57.44better than naive1.94difficulty+111.43skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    24-20
    skill:
    111.43
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    42.56
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    0.88
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Availability CallsNico CollinsHouston Texans

    “He has a grade one hamstring... I would guess he probably misses this game and, you know, maybe then comes back in week three. (Week 2)”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    60naive 48.5

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

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