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AJ Hawk#71 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 26, 2026

Hawk picked the Cowboys to win at Philadelphia on Monday night by seven or more points, and expected the Vikings' offense to become more explosive as the season goes.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100

Cowboys 38–21What happenedCowboys at Eagles

0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

100This callout of 100

#71AJ Hawk’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What AJ Hawk said

Give me the Cowboys on the road minus four and a half. I think they win by seven or more.

Our reading: Dallas Cowboys to beat Philadelphia Eagles

Where it was said: The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode: PMS 2.0 1653 - OVERREACTION MONDAY, NFL Week 7 Recap, MNF Preview/Picks, Matthew Stafford, Adam Schefter, Dan Orlovsky, Darius Butler, & AJ Hawk
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 26
PlayedOct 26
GradedOct 27

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Game Outcome Picks Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat Philadelphia Eagles
What happenedCowboys 38–21Cowboys at Eagles
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.67difficulty+167skill
Closing line (Oct 26): Cowboys by 4.5 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 2 in 3 (66%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
38-21
skill:
167
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
PHI
difficulty:
1.67
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
12
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Cowboys at EaglesCowboys 38Eagles 2131 calls →

Who this take is about

Dallas Cowboys

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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