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Joe JohnsonOct 1, 2026

Johnson backed their Cowboys to beat Houston and drop the Texans to 0-4.

Said on air or in an interview · Nightcap (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100

Cowboys 34–30What happenedCowboys at Texans

0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

100This callout of 100

+183Skillafter difficulty

What Joe Johnson said

The Texans are going to be 0-4.

Our reading: Dallas Cowboys to beat Texans

Where it was said: Nightcap (podcast)
The episode: Nightcap Hour 2: NFL Week 4 QB POWER Rankings + Tyreek Hill HINTS Potential LANDING Spots + Sean McVay says NFL Told Rams DPI Was WRONG + Piston REMOVE Weight CLAUSE From Duren’s CONTRACT
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 1
PlayedOct 4
GradedOct 5

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Game Outcome Picks Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to beat Texans
What happenedCowboys 34–30Cowboys at Texans
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Texans by 3 · underdog pick, Cowboys 42%.
How this was scored
won:
DAL
score:
34-30
skill:
183
they picked:
DAL
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?

The game in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Cowboys at TexansCowboys 34Texans 3031 calls →

Who this take is about

Dallas Cowboys

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
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Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
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Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
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Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.

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