Shanna McCarriston#10 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 17, 2026

They pick the Bills to beat the Raiders in Las Vegas, predicting a 31-24 final score while expecting Buffalo to clean up its turnover issues.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

90Hit · out of 100

Bills 33–30What happenedcalled Bills by 7 · won by 3

43.22A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

90.48This callout of 100

#10Shanna McCarriston’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Shanna McCarriston said

Pick: Bills 31, Raiders 24

Our reading: Buffalo Bills 31 — Raiders 24

Where it was published: CBS Sports
The piece: Bills vs. Raiders prediction: Can Las Vegas end losing streak? Everything to know for AFC matchup
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 17
PlayedOct 18
GradedOct 19

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 90.5 out of 100, against 43.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills 31 — Raiders 24
What happenedBills 33–30called Bills by 7 · won by 3
90.48Hit · naive 43.22
90.48this call43.22a naive guess47.26better than naive1.72difficulty+81.28skill
Closing line (Oct 18): Bills by 5.5, total 53.5 · this 31–24 calls a bigger Bills win (by 7) and more points (55).
How this was scored
score:
33-30
skill:
81.28
they picked:
BUF
season:
2026
accuracy:
90.48
baseline:
43.22
difficulty:
1.72
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
13
naive home margin:
0.15
predicted margin:
7
Think this is wrong?