Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 19, 2025

Eisen picked the Bills to finish with the NFL's best record, said the Dolphins look like a top-five draft pick team, chose the Chiefs over the Colts to make the playoffs despite their 0-2 start, and made week-three picks: Bengals to go 3-0, the Jets to win at Tampa, and they leaned Steelers over the Patriots.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · 1 waiting

34.8Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

54.1A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 6Settled1 still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think the Bills have an opportunity to have the best record in the NFL this year.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
The episode: Hour 3: ‘What’s More Likely’ plus Rich’s Top 5 NFL Week 3 Matchups
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidSep 19, 2025
GradedAug 13, 2026

1Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs“More likely, team that were surprised at their start to make the playoffs... The o and two Chiefs or the two and o Colts... I'll take the Chiefs.”
2Cincinnati Bengals to beat Vikings“Jake Browning, baby. And it's gonna start this weekend, and the Bengals are gonna be three and o.”
3New York Jets to beat Bucks“Oh, and two team more likely to score an upset road win, Saints or Jets? I'll take the Jets... And they could go down to Tampa and go get, you know, their their old coach... But I'll I'll go Jets.”
4Pittsburgh Steelers to beat New England“One and one Pittsburgh. At 1 And 1 New England... I'm leaning towards the Steelers.”
5Miami Dolphins to pick “picking in the top five” (picks 1–5)“But the Dolphins look like a team picking in the top five.”
6Buffalo Bills to take the top seed“I'll go Bills finish with the NFL's best record because I pointed out in our number one... I think the Bills have an opportunity to have the best record in the NFL this year.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs¹	Playoff Picks	Missed the playoffs	0	0	0
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Vikings²	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−189
New York Jets to beat Bucks³	Game Outcome Picks	—	0	100	−189
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat New England⁴	Game Outcome Picks	—	100	0	+189
Miami Dolphins to pick “picking in the top five” (picks 1–5)⁵	Team Draft Slot Calls	Picked at 12	73.84	70.71	+5.92
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed⁶	Seeding, Byes and Home Field	—	—	—	—
6 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 3 misses · 1 waiting			34.8	54.1

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 playoff pick, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 team draft slot call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 34.8 out of 100, against 54.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Playoff Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
2Game Outcome Picks Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Vikings
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Vikings by 3 · underdog pick, Bengals 41%.
How this was scored
won:
MIN
score:
10-48
skill:
−189
they picked:
CIN
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
MIN
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks New York Jets
New York Jets to beat Bucks
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Buccaneers by 6.5 · underdog pick, Jets about 1 in 4 (26%).
How this was scored
won:
TB
score:
27-29
skill:
−189
they picked:
NYJ
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
4Game Outcome Picks Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat New England
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Steelers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Steelers 52%, Patriots 48%.
How this was scored
won:
PIT
score:
21-14
skill:
189
they picked:
PIT
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
NE
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
5Team Draft Slot Calls Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins to pick “picking in the top five” (picks 1–5)
What happenedPicked at 12
73.84Close · naive 70.71
73.84this call70.71a naive guess3.13better than naive1.89difficulty+5.92skill
How this was scored
team:
MIA
draft:
2026
naive:
they picked 13 the year before
skill:
5.92
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
32
accuracy:
73.84
baseline:
70.71
actual pick:
12
difficulty:
1.89
weeks in the season:
18
predicted pick:
picking in the top five (picks 1–5)
weeks left when called:
16
Think this is wrong?
6Seeding, Byes and Home Field Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to take the top seed
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
34.8naive 54.1

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.
Andrew Erickson · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Erickson floated Kansas City as the landing spot for Josh Downs and said a trade there would make them at least a WR3 rest of season; they also expect Rashee Rice to leave the Chiefs after this season as a free agent.
Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
Mike Kadlick · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Kadlick names the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers as the three best trade landing spots for Colts wide receiver Josh Downs ahead of the Nov. 10 deadline.
Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · Buffalo Bills · Close 76
Prisco picked the Bills to win 21-14 at Minnesota.

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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.