Nick BaumgardnerFeb 28, 2026
The Athletic's draft analyst assessed several 2026 prospects: Ruben Bain as a top-15/20 rather than top-5/10 prospect, Kenyon Sadiq as a clear first-round tight end going anywhere from 15 into the 20s, Jeremiah Love as a top-five player on their board who fits the Chiefs in the top ten, Ty Simpson as a possible late-first-round pick, Fernando Mendoza as the class's only certain first-round QB, and Garrett Nussmeyer as QB3.
Said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Baumgardner said
I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.
- Where it was said
- Fox Sports Radio (podcast)
- The episode
- FnA with Kevin Figgers & Adam Auslund debate Luka and the Lakers' problem, the NFL Draft Combine + Nick Baumgardner joins the show.
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 28
- GradedAug 13
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position Order Calls | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mock Draft Picks | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| All | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 6 mock draft picks and 3 position order calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 78.8 out of 100, against 42.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
positional finishTheir call against what actually happened.
Position Order Calls2 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Garrett Nussmeier to be 3rd quarterback off the board
“I think he's probably QB three right now”
8.84Miss8.84 − 33.08 naive = −24.24 × 1 difficulty = −24.24 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
- skill:
- −24.24
- player:
- Garrett Nussmeier
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 8.84
- baseline:
- 33.08
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 10
- predicted order:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st quarterback off the board
“Like Mendoza is clearly number one.”
100Hit100 − 33.08 naive = 66.92 × 1 difficulty = +66.92 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 10 at random averages 33.08
- skill:
- 66.92
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 33.08
- position:
- quarterback
- class size:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Kenyon Sadiq to be 1st tight end off the board
“And I think Sadique's easily the best one in this class.”
100Hit100 − 15.51 naive = 84.49 × 1 difficulty = +84.49 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- naming one of the 22 at random averages 15.51
- skill:
- 84.49
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- credit halves every two places
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 15.51
- position:
- tight end
- class size:
- 22
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual order:
- 1
- predicted order:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Mock Draft Picks5 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Jeremiyah Love to be picked “the Chiefs there in the top ten” (picks 1–10)
“the team that makes the most sense for me for him as the Chiefs there in the top ten. They desperately need a running back.”
Went 3100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Jeremiyah Love
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- the Chiefs there in the top ten (picks 1–10)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Rueben Bain to be picked “a top fifteen, top twenty prospect” (picks 1–15)
“I just don't think what what the media, you know, has sort of viewed him as as maybe a top five or a top ten prospect. I don't think the NFL views him that way. I think he's more of a maybe a top fifteen, top twenty prospect.”
Went 15100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Rueben Bain
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 15
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- a top fifteen, top twenty prospect (picks 1–15)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Ty Simpson to be picked “could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties” (picks 1–32)
“I do think he'll he could be a first round pick somewhere where along the where where Jackson Dart ended up last year, like late twenties.”
Went 13100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- could be a first round pick somewhere ... late twenties (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Kenyon Sadiq to be picked “certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's certainly a first round pick. I just don't know where... it could be anywhere, you know, from fifteen all the way down into the twenties.”
Went 16100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Kenyon Sadiq
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 16
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- certainly a first round pick ... anywhere from fifteen all the way down into the twenties (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Fernando Mendoza to be picked “first round quarterback” (picks 1–32)
“He's the only guy in this class that we would stamp and say first round quarterback, you know, no question about it.”
Went 1100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- first round quarterback (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Cole Payton to be picked “pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty” (picks 1–32)
“Some scouts absolutely love him, you know, and have talked about him maybe as a pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty anyway.”
Went 1780.18MissThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Cole Payton
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 0.18
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 178
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 0.18
- predicted pick:
- pushing into the first round or somewhere up into the top fifty (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Alain Poupart · Roster Spot Calls · Carlos Washington · Miss 0
Poupart expects rookie guard Kadyn Proctor to clear concussion protocol and play against Detroit, sees Ollie Gordon II continuing as the Dolphins' workhorse back, and thinks practice squad back Carlos Washington Jr. could be elevated for the Lions game.Nick Brinkerhoff · Score Predictions · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Predicts a 23-20 Dolphins win over the Jets.Mike Kadlick · Game Outcome Picks · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Picks the Dolphins to beat the Jets.Alain Poupart · Score Predictions · Miami Dolphins · Hit 98
Picks the Dolphins to upset the Jets 24-20, citing New York's run-defense problems against a Miami ground game led by Ollie Gordon II and Malik Willis.Alain Poupart · Game Outcome Picks · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Picks the Jets to beat the Dolphins 19-17, while predicting Miami will get its win over New York in the rematch five weeks later.Jourdan Rodrigue · Game Outcome Picks · Miami Dolphins · Hit 100
Roderick picked the Vikings to smash the Colts, the Dolphins to win their first game of the season against the Jets, and the Saints to upset the Steelers in Paris.
More mock draft picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Simms · Mock Draft Picks · Malachi Corley · Miss 11
Simms named the Bears the NFL's best overall offense and best rushing offense, the Bengals the best passing offense, Seattle the best total defense, Minnesota the best pass defense and Tampa Bay the best run defense; they also called Tristan Wirfs the league's best offensive lineman, projected Miami's Malachi Toney as a top-15 pick, and predicted a 30-14 Jaguars win in Baltimore.Philip Hughes · Mock Draft Picks · Kyle Kennard · Miss 34
Evaluating edge rusher Kyle Kennard ahead of the draft, the account projected them as a Day 2 selection.Blaine Grisak · Mock Draft Picks · Brian Thomas Jr. · Hit 84
Grisak argues the Rams should not trade a second-round pick for Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., calling it too great a risk and too high a cost. In an embedded tweet of their own from the 2024 pre-draft period, they suggested the Rams could select Thomas at pick No. 19.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Campbell's draft stock report projects Indiana WR Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in 2027, Mississippi State CB Kelley Jones as a first-rounder, Tennessee DT Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick, and Texas OT Trevor Goosby as a top-10 pick, while suggesting Arch Manning could still be a first-rounder if they declare.Charlie Campbell · Mock Draft Picks · Xavier Williams · Miss 0
Reviewing Week 7 college games, Campbell projects a slate of draft outcomes: Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam as a top-15 pick in 2026, Alabama's Bray Hubbard as a Day 2 pick and Yhonzae Pierre as a potential first-rounder, Jeremiah Smith as one of the very first players drafted, Charlie Becker as a top-10 pick in the 2027 draft, Colin Simmons and Trevor Goosby as top-10 picks, and Jadan Baugh as a first-round pick.