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Randy Gurzi#74 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 9, 2026

Gurzi says the home-field edge carries Seattle to a close 31-28 win over San Francisco.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

50Close · out of 100
49ers 32–29What happenedcalled Seahawks by 3 · lost by 3
43.62A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
50This callout of 100
#74Randy Gurzi’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Randy Gurzi said

Being at home, the Seahawks have the edge.
Our reading: Seattle Seahawks 31 — 49ers 28
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
5 Score Predictions for 49ers vs. Seahawks in Week 5
The original
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  1. SaidOct 9
  2. PlayedOct 11
  3. GradedOct 12

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 50 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Score PredictionsSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks 31 — 49ers 28

    What happened49ers 32–29called Seahawks by 3 · lost by 3
    50Close · naive 43.62
    50this call43.62a naive guess6.38better than naive1.78difficulty+11.36skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 31–28 calls the line’s margin (Seahawks by 3) and more points (59).

    How this was scored
    score:
    32-29
    skill:
    11.36
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    50
    baseline:
    43.62
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.32
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

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