Krystal Ball· Nov 7, 2022

She endorsed a roughly 25-seat Republican House gain but split from her co-host on several Senate races, picking Cortez Masto in Nevada, Kelly in Arizona and Hassan in New Hampshire while predicting Oz wins Pennsylvania and Walker ultimately wins Georgia after a runoff. She also expected DeSantis and Maryland's Democratic nominee to win their governor's races by double digits.

“I'll stand with Ralston just because he has such a good track record.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

8 checkable claims — 5 race winners, 2 race margins and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 8 have settled, averaging 65 out of 100, against 56.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“I am also going to bet Oz on this one because the polls are extremely close... So yeah, I'm going to say that Oz pulls that one, pulls out the victory.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“I'll stand with Ralston just because he has such a good track record... I'll say that Catherine Cortez Master holds on there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Catherine Cortez Masto
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 7, 2022
“they send him to Florida like Ron de Santis is gonna win by probably double digit like go Charlie Chris”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.4
in their words:
by probably double digit
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
19.4
their party:
Republican
their range:
10 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“So I would also say Walker by a little bit, but you're going to a runoff... I think probably Walker at this point”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 7, 2022
“he go to like Maryland, Yes, to campaign for the Democratic gubernatorial nominee who's like definitely going to win again. By double digits”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-md
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
what happened:
32.4
in their words:
By double digits
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Wes Moore
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Wes Moore
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Maryland gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
32.4
their party:
Democratic
their range:
10 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“I was going to say the same thing for the same reason. There you go. They are paying a lot more attention to those races than I am, so and they're lots smarter on these things. So better to go with the experts on that one”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-35 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−35
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
20
baseline:
55
they said:
25
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“So I'm going to say Mark Kelly holds on in Arizona.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-az
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Mark Kelly
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mark Kelly
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“The Democrat the mainstream polls have Hassen by a couple of points. I'm going to say she holds on there as well.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Maggie Hassan
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.