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John Breech#34 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 8, 2026

Breech picked the Cowboys to beat the Buccaneers 27-17 on Thursday night, and in Week 5 took the 49ers to edge the Seahawks 27-24. They also suggested Commanders QB Jayden Daniels could return to play Sunday.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · 1 waiting
72.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
37.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#34John Breech’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What John Breech said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Shanahan is going to use Brock Purdy to put the Seahawks in checkmate.
John Breech, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Pick Six: Buccaneers-Cowboys predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 5 picks and trade possibilities
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidOct 8
  2. PlayedOct 8–11
  3. GradedOct 9–12
  1. 1San Francisco 49ers 27 — Seahawks 24“John Breech — 49ers (+3) 27-24 over Seahawks.”
  2. 2Dallas Cowboys 27 — Buccaneers 17“John Breech's pick: Cowboys 27-17 over Buccaneers”
  3. 3Availability Calls“Jayden Daniels might play Sunday. The Commanders QB has missed two games since dislocating his elbow in Week 2, but he might be back on the field this week.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
San Francisco 49ers 27 — Seahawks 241Score Predictions49ers 32–2910043.62+100.36
Dallas Cowboys 27 — Buccaneers 172Score PredictionsBuccaneers 24–1645.2432.2+23.21
“Jayden Daniels might play Sunday. The Commanders QB has missed…”3Availability Calls————
3 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · 1 waiting72.637.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 score predictions and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 72.6 out of 100, against 37.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers 27 — Seahawks 24

    What happened49ers 32–29called 49ers by 3 · won by 3
    100Hit · naive 43.62
    100this call43.62a naive guess56.38better than naive1.78difficulty+100.36skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 27–24 calls a 49ers win (by 3; the line gave the 49ers 40%) and more points (51). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    32-29
    skill:
    100.36
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    43.62
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    3
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.32
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys 27 — Buccaneers 17

    What happenedBuccaneers 24–16called Cowboys by 10 · lost by 8
    45.24Close · naive 32.2
    45.24this call32.2a naive guess13.04better than naive1.78difficulty+23.21skill

    Closing line (Oct 8): Cowboys by 9.5, total 49.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 10) and fewer points (44).

    How this was scored
    score:
    24-16
    skill:
    23.21
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    45.24
    baseline:
    32.2
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    8
    weeks left when called:
    14
    naive home margin:
    0.52
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Availability CallsJayden DanielsWashington Commanders

    “Jayden Daniels might play Sunday. The Commanders QB has missed two games since dislocating his elbow in Week 2, but he might be back on the field this week.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    72.6naive 37.9

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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