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Sam MonsonOct 1, 2026

Monson predicted the Bills would beat the Patriots, possibly handily, agreed the Bears would beat the Jets, and said the Chargers would be beaten down by Seattle. They also said Dallas Turner would lead the league in pressures and sacks, and expected Jalen Coker to miss the Panthers' game.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Check the Mic (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting
66.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3Games calledeveryone’s picks below
2Waitingnot graded yet

What Sam Monson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I feel like the Bills will win this and maybe win it handily.
Sam Monson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Check the Mic (podcast)
The episode
NFL Week 4 Preview & Picks: EVERY GAME!
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 1
  2. PlayedOct 4
  3. GradedOct 5
  1. 1Buffalo Bills to beat New England Patriots“I feel like the Bills will win this and maybe win it handily unless, you know, division game, weird things happen”
  2. 2Chicago Bears to beat New York Jets“Bears fans. Mhmm. Bears to cover. Yep. Same. (following Palazzolo's 'not just to win, to cover' Bears pick)”
  3. 3Seattle Seahawks to beat Los Angeles Chargers“Seattle, they're gonna get their ass beat in this game... They're just gonna get beat down in this game.”
  4. 4Dallas Turner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks“Dallas Turner is gonna lead the league in, like, pressures and sacks and stuff.”
  5. 5Availability Calls“Coker's officially questionable with the quad... So I think it's a pretty good chance he doesn't play. (Week 4 vs. Lions)”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Buffalo Bills to beat New England Patriots1Game Outcome PicksPatriots 29–26000
Chicago Bears to beat New York Jets2Game Outcome PicksBears 23–121001000
Seattle Seahawks to beat Los Angeles Chargers3Game Outcome PicksSeahawks 30–231001000
Dallas Turner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks4Positional Finishes————
“Coker's officially questionable with the quad... So I think…”5Availability Calls————
5 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · 2 waiting66.766.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

5 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks, 1 availability call and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

3 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat New England Patriots

    What happenedPatriots 29–26Patriots at Bills
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.83difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (74%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    NE
    score:
    29-26
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears to beat New York Jets

    What happenedBears 23–12Jets at Bears
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.83difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Bears by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bears 63%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    12-23
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat Los Angeles Chargers

    What happenedSeahawks 30–23Chargers at Seahawks
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.83difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 4): Seahawks by 7 · favorite pick, Seahawks about 3 in 4 (74%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    23-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    15
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Positional FinishesDallas TurnerMinnesota Vikings

    Dallas Turner to finish top 1 at his position, by sacks

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Availability CallsJalen CokerCarolina Panthers

    “Coker's officially questionable with the quad... So I think it's a pretty good chance he doesn't play. (Week 4 vs. Lions)”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  6. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    66.7naive 66.7

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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