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Mike Kadlick· Oct 4, 2026

Kadlick predicts a Sunday night shootout in Charlotte, with Detroit beating Carolina 41–38 after four fourth-quarter lead changes to move to 3–1 while the Panthers fall to 1–3.

“the Lions come out on top 41–38 to move to 3–1 while knocking the Panthers down to 1–3.”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 42.9 out of 100, against 88.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Detroit Lions 41 — Panthers 38

    “after four fourth-quarter lead changes, the Lions come out on top 41–38 to move to 3–1 while knocking the Panthers down to 1–3.”

    Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 88.1-82.79 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    26-32
    skill:
    −82.79
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    42.86
    baseline:
    88.1
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    6
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    1
    predicted margin:
    3

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