Jamie Erdahl#31 of 87 NFL pundits · Nov 1, 2025
Proud of picking the Patriots as an AFC wild card and doubles down on the Broncos winning the AFC West; also had the Packers in the playoffs and Micah Parsons as Defensive Player of the Year.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Jamie Erdahl said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI still have the Broncos winning that division.
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- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Saturday: NFC Cinderellas, Garrett is Mayjah, and Preseason Prediction Check!
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidNov 1, 2025
- GradedAug 7–17, 2026
- 1Denver Broncos to win the division“maintain that the Broncos are going to win the AFC West”
- 2New York Giants to make the playoffs“And yes, I do have the Giants on the right side of the screen”
- 3Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs“I put the Packers in a lot because of Michael Parsons, influenced by recency bias.”
- 4Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year“I put Mike Parsons in. He was my defensive player of the Year pick”
- 5New England Patriots to make the playoffs“I am most proud of putting that Patriots logo in the wild card.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 100 | 0 | +156 | |
| New York Giants to make the playoffs2 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −156 | |
| Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year4 | Award Picks | Myles Garrett won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| New England Patriots to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 0 | +156 | |
| 5 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 60 | 40 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive5 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win the division
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.56difficulty=+156skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 156
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- yes
New York Giants to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.56difficulty=−156skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- −156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 10
3Playoff PicksGreen Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
4Award PicksMicah ParsonsGreen Bay Packers
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
What happenedMyles Garrett woncalled Micah Parsons0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.56difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
5Playoff PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.56difficulty=+156skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
60naive 40
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Pete Prisco · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Miss 36
Prisco picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 23-14 on Thursday night and the Lions to beat the Patriots 30-24 in Munich.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders 20-14 on Thursday night and takes the Packers over the Vikings 17-14 in a low-scoring Week 10 game.Jared Dubin · Score Predictions · New York Giants · Close 43
Dubin picks the Giants to beat the Commanders at home on Thursday night, projecting a 20-14 final score.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.