Jamie Erdahl· Nov 1, 2025
Proud of picking the Patriots as an AFC wild card and doubles down on the Broncos winning the AFC West; also had the Packers in the playoffs and Micah Parsons as Defensive Player of the Year.
“I still have the Broncos winning that division.”
said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
5 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 40 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersDenver BroncosNov 1, 2025
Denver Broncos to win the division
“maintain that the Broncos are going to win the AFC West”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 156
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- won the division:
- yes
- Playoff PicksNew York GiantsNov 1, 2025
New York Giants to make the playoffs
“And yes, I do have the Giants on the right side of the screen”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-156 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NYG
- skill:
- -156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksGreen Bay PackersNov 1, 2025
Green Bay Packers to make the playoffs
“I put the Packers in a lot because of Michael Parsons, influenced by recency bias.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- GB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Award PicksMicah ParsonsGreen Bay PackersNov 1, 2025
Micah Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year
“I put Mike Parsons in. He was my defensive player of the Year pick”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- defensive_player_of_the_year
- naive:
- the naive pick was Pat Surtain II, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Micah Parsons
- season:
- 2025
- winner:
- Myles Garrett
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsNov 1, 2025
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“I am most proud of putting that Patriots logo in the wild card.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- skill:
- 156
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 10
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Denver BroncosHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.