Derek Brown· May 31, 2025
Brown is out on Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift while targeting R.J. Harvey, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Jarquez Hunter, Rishard Smith, MarShawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams as guys who beat their current cost.
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year.”
said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
10 checkable claims — 7 sleeper calls, 2 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy bust call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
8 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 72.9 out of 100, against 49 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
10 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Sleeper CallsJavonte WilliamsDallas CowboysMay 31, 2025
Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
“if he looks like the guy from weeks one through eight, Yeah, this is this year's JK. Dobbins... I just bumped him up to RB thirty two”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB thirty seven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Javonte Williams
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB11
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
- Sleeper CallsBrashard SmithKansas City ChiefsMay 31, 2025
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (RB ninety one)
“I think Rishard Smith is gonna make noise in this backfield as the new Jerrick McKinnon... He should be inside the top fifty like he is in my ranks”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB ninety one
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Brashard Smith
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB70
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsKaleb JohnsonPittsburgh SteelersMay 31, 2025
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty nine)
“Somebody explained to me why Caleb Johnson is not in this tier... he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty nine
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- -200
- player:
- Kaleb Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB104
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Sleeper CallsRJ HarveyDenver BroncosMay 31, 2025
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty three)
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- RJ Harvey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
- Fantasy Bust CallsAaron JonesMinnesota VikingsMay 31, 2025
Aaron Jones to fall short of his draft cost (RB twenty two)
“So Aaron Jones, I can't draft at RB twenty two right now. I just I can't do it.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- RB twenty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Aaron Jones
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB16
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB44
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty four)
“outside of r J. Harvey, Trevion is gonna be definitely one of my big targets this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skillHow this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB twenty four
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Kaleb Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart
“going back to Caleb Johnson, he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Kaleb Johnson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsTony PollardTennessee TitansMay 31, 2025
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think Tony Pollard is still going to be the quick, clear, workhorse, sixty to sixty five percent snap guy. He's gonna get the red zone touches”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tony Pollard
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Sleeper CallsMarShawn LloydGreen Bay PackersMay 31, 2025
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“the guy that he's not inside the top fifty, the Green Bay Packers didn't do anything to add to their backfield. Marshaun Lloyd”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Sleeper CallsJarquez HunterLos Angeles RamsMay 31, 2025
Jarquez Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“Jarqust Hunter, I'm going to bring up yet again because he is going to play a role in this backfield”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom StrachanSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Tom Strachan backed Xavier Worthy, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Darnell Mooney, Zay Flowers, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter as values at their draft costs, while avoiding Jerry Jeudy and the Cleveland receivers.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Ricky PearsallHit · 100Host Ryan Warmley endorsed Ricky Pearsall as a bet worth making and put his rookie-receiver capital in Tetairoa McMillan, while fading Zay Flowers at his cost and opting out of Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Chris WelshSleeper Calls · Tyler WarrenHit · 100Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
- Pat FitzmauriceSleeper Calls · Chris Rodriguez Jr.Hit · 100Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (his WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (his QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.
- Joe PisapiaSleeper Calls · Tyreek HillMiss · 0Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: he passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.
- Ryan WormeliSleeper Calls · Tetairoa McMillanHit · 100Hosting the segment, Warmley backed Bryce Young to finish better than his QB22 consensus ranking, endorsed Cedric Tillman as a late-round target, and said Tetairoa McMillan will be a top-15 fantasy receiver this season.