Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · May 31, 2025

Brown is out on Kyren Williams, Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift while targeting R.J. Harvey, Trevion Henderson, Kenneth Walker, Bucky Irving, Tony Pollard, Kaleb Johnson, Cam Skattebo, Jarquez Hunter, Rishard Smith, MarShawn Lloyd and Javonte Williams as guys who beat their current cost.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

6 of 8calls landed6 hits · 2 misses · 2 waiting

72.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 8 calls

49A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

8 of 10Settled2 still waiting

#12Derek Brown’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Derek Brown said

I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year.

Derek Brown, the lead quote

Where it was said: FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode: FantasyPros - Will Saquon Barkley Bust? | The Top 50 Running Backs for the 2025 Season (Ep. 1580)
The original: Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidMay 31, 2025
GradedAug 5–19, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Misses	Waiting
Sleeper Calls	3	2	2
Fantasy Bust Calls	1	0	0
Depth Chart Calls	2	0	0
All	6	2	2

How each call scored

10 checkable claims — 7 sleeper calls, 2 depth chart calls and 1 fantasy bust call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 18 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

8 of 10 have settled so far, averaging 72.9 out of 100, against 49 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Sleeper Calls3 hits · 2 misses · 2 waitingShow ▸

Javonte Williams to outplay his draft cost (RB thirty seven)
“if he looks like the guy from weeks one through eight, Yeah, this is this year's JK. Dobbins... I just bumped him up to RB thirty two”
Javonte Williams Dallas Cowboys
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB thirty seven
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Javonte Williams
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB32
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB11
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Brashard Smith to outplay his draft cost (RB ninety one)
“I think Rishard Smith is gonna make noise in this backfield as the new Jerrick McKinnon... He should be inside the top fifty like he is in my ranks”
Brashard Smith Kansas City Chiefs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB ninety one
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
−200
player:
Brashard Smith
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB70
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty nine)
“Somebody explained to me why Caleb Johnson is not in this tier... he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Kaleb Johnson Pittsburgh Steelers
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty nine
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
−200
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB104
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty three)
“I've got RJ. Harvey is locked in top fifteen back this year”
RJ Harvey Denver Broncos
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty three
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
RJ Harvey
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB22
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
TreVeyon Henderson to outplay his draft cost (RB twenty four)
“outside of r J. Harvey, Trevion is gonna be definitely one of my big targets this year”
TreVeyon Henderson New England Patriots
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
RB twenty four
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
200
player:
TreVeyon Henderson
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB19
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
MarShawn Lloyd to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“the guy that he's not inside the top fifty, the Green Bay Packers didn't do anything to add to their backfield. Marshaun Lloyd”
MarShawn Lloyd Green Bay Packers
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
Jarquez Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top fifty)
“Jarqust Hunter, I'm going to bring up yet again because he is going to play a role in this backfield”
Jarquez Hunter Los Angeles Rams
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Fantasy Bust Calls1 hitShow ▸

Aaron Jones to fall short of his draft cost (RB twenty two)
“So Aaron Jones, I can't draft at RB twenty two right now. I just I can't do it.”
Aaron Jones Minnesota Vikings
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
bust
cost:
RB twenty two
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Aaron Jones
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB16
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB44
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?

Depth Chart Calls2 hitsShow ▸

Kaleb Johnson to be 1st on the depth chart
“going back to Caleb Johnson, he shouldn't be in this tier. He is the clear guy”
Kaleb Johnson Pittsburgh Steelers
No. 3called No. 1 · by rushing yards
83.33Hit
83.33 − 91.67 naive = −8.34 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
PIT
skill:
−16.67
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Tony Pollard to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think Tony Pollard is still going to be the quick, clear, workhorse, sixty to sixty five percent snap guy. He's gonna get the red zone touches”
Tony Pollard Tennessee Titans
No. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
club:
TEN
skill:
0
player:
Tony Pollard
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
position:
RB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?