Chris WelshAug 30, 2025
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Chris Welsh said
The rushing upside makes him a top ten quarterback draft.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Draft or Pass on These Fantasy Football Gambles: Boom-or-Bust Picks For 2025 (Ep. 1675)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 29, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Too vague | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleeper Calls | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fantasy Bust Calls | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
How each call scored
16 claims — 9 sleeper calls, 5 fantasy bust calls and 2 positional finishes — the 15 we can check each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 25 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
14 of the 15 calls we can check have settled so far, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 12.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
The other one was too vague to check, so it is not graded.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Sleeper Calls9 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Tyler Warren to outplay his draft cost (tight end eleven)
“if you miss on the top three, you should be targeting Craft or Tyler Warren on the back end of the tight end. So that is a draft.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- tight end eleven
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyler Warren
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE12
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE7
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty four)
“the first wide receiver O Lave checks in at like wide receiver thirty four... this is really built around a Lave being too much of a value. So I'm gonna say, draft.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty four
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Travis Kelce to outplay his draft cost (the sixty seventh player, the sixth tight end)
“I'll put a ring on it... you have Rice out. He's gonna be a red zone option. He got all the targets in the world. So I will put a ring on it”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the sixty seventh player, the sixth tight end
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Kelce
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE10
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE5
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
RJ Harvey to outplay his draft cost (a round fifty one)
“So I am a draft on RJ. Harvey... I think the ceiling continues to jump up and up”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- a round fifty one
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- RJ Harvey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB22
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Travis Hunter to outplay his draft cost (outside the top thirty)
“So for a wide receiver of that talent to be going outside the top thirty... I think Travis Hunter is still a smash draft.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- outside the top thirty
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- secondary
- had to beat:
- secondary24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- secondary1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (the seventh player overall)
“So I'm going to take some risk here when the running backs fall off. And I'm going to say Christian McCaffrey... is a draft”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- the seventh player overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB72
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Drake Maye to outplay his draft cost (QB sixteen on a ADP)
“his value is too good. He's QB sixteen on a ADP... I think he got a draft him because that value”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- QB sixteen on a ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Drake Maye
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- QB
- had to beat:
- QB22
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- QB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Breece Hall to outplay his draft cost (RB nineteen forty three overall)
“I am a draft of Breece Hall. I actually don't hate the ADP... I actually think in the fourth round, especially full PPR, it's a big check”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- RB nineteen forty three overall
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Breece Hall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB18
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (fifty nine overall)
“We are drafting. Give me tetroh A McMillan one hundred percent... I think he could live up to what we wanted Marvin to be last year”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- fifty nine overall
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Fantasy Bust Calls3 hits · 1 miss · 1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Austin Ekeler to fall short of his draft cost (high into the thirties)
“You see Eckler going high into the thirties... I think it's gone too crazy, and I think there is too much of a committee here... So as a whole I'm gonna pass.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- high into the thirties
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Austin Ekeler
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB103
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to fall short of his draft cost (the seventh rounds)
“We've seen Bill Krofsky Merrit going to like the seventh rounds, some people posting around the fifth round. I think it's gone too crazy”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the seventh rounds
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Rashee Rice to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver thirty two)
“I think Rice at the current value still doesn't make sense. So that's why they're both going to be passes.”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Rashee Rice
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR97
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR41
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Tyreek Hill to fall short of his draft cost (the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP)
“I'm a pretty firm pass on Tyreek Hill... he's a pass for me. I don't want a lot of shares.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- the twelfth wide receiver on the consensus ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tyreek Hill
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR23
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR107
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Joe Mixon to fall short of his draft cost (one O two overall RB thirty seven)
“This is a hard pass. I have absolutely no interest... So I have no interest in Joe Mixon.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Positional Finishes1 miss · 1 too vague to checkShow ▸Hide ▾
Justin Fields to finish top 10 at his position, by fantasy points
“The rushing upside makes him a top ten quarterback draft.”
Finished #28called #10 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 75 naive = −75 × 2 difficulty = −150 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −150
- player:
- Justin Fields
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- QB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 31
- actual finish:
- 28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 10
“I kind of think he's going to stick around like QB between QB ten and fourteen this year.”
—Too vague to checkToo vague to check: we could not tell what would count as right, so it stays on the record without a score.
Who this take is about
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts, Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders, Tetairoa McMillan, New Orleans Saints, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs, RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos, Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars, Christian McCaffrey, Drake Maye, New England Patriots, Rashee Rice, Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins, Breece Hall, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Justin Fields, Joe Mixon, Houston Texans
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · DeVonta Smith · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · George Pickens · Hit 100
Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.Jake Ciely · Sleeper Calls · Romeo Doubs · Hit 100
Counting down their top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.