Brendon NelsonOct 9, 2026

Nelson predicts a low-scoring 20-17 Seahawks win, with Mike Macdonald's defense containing the 49ers and Darnold making enough plays.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

50Close · out of 100

49ers 32–29What happenedcalled Seahawks by 3 · lost by 3

43.62A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

50This callout of 100

+11.36Skillafter difficulty

What Brendon Nelson said

The Seahawks offense struggles to run the ball but Darnold makes enough plays to win.

Our reading: Seattle Seahawks 20 — 49ers 17

Where it was published: Sports Illustrated
The piece: 5 Score Predictions for 49ers vs. Seahawks in Week 5
The original: Read the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 9
PlayedOct 11
GradedOct 12

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 50 out of 100, against 43.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Score Predictions Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks 20 — 49ers 17
What happened49ers 32–29called Seahawks by 3 · lost by 3
50Close · naive 43.62
50this call43.62a naive guess6.38better than naive1.78difficulty+11.36skill
Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3, total 46.5 · this 20–17 calls the line’s margin (Seahawks by 3) and fewer points (37).
How this was scored
score:
32-29
skill:
11.36
they picked:
SEA
season:
2026
accuracy:
50
baseline:
43.62
difficulty:
1.78
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
3
weeks left when called:
14
naive home margin:
0.32
predicted margin:
3
Think this is wrong?