Eric Moody· Oct 4, 2026
Moody picked final scores for all 15 Week 4 games, including upsets by the Jaguars at Cincinnati and the Saints over Atlanta on Monday night.
“Moody's pick: Jaguars 34, Bengals 31”
published in writing · read the original →
15 checkable claims — 15 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 15 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
14 of 15 have settled so far, averaging 79.1 out of 100, against 61 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Colts at Commanders 24 calls
- Cowboys at Texans 31 calls
- Titans at Ravens 17 calls
- Cardinals at Giants 21 calls
- Rams at Eagles 28 calls
- Patriots at Bills 36 calls
- Jets at Bears 26 calls
- Jaguars at Bengals 30 calls
- Packers at Buccaneers 22 calls
- Dolphins at Vikings 23 calls
- Chargers at Seahawks 26 calls
- Chiefs at Raiders 35 calls
- Broncos at 49ers 27 calls
- Lions at Panthers 42 calls
- Falcons at Saints 32 calls
15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsDetroit LionsOct 4, 2026
Detroit Lions 31 — Panthers 28
“Moody's pick: Lions 31, Panthers 28”
Close · 43Scored 42.86a naive guess scored 88.1-82.79 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 26-32
- skill:
- −82.79
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 42.86
- baseline:
- 88.1
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsSan Francisco 49ersOct 4, 2026
San Francisco 49ers 23 — Broncos 20
“Moody's pick: 49ers 23, Broncos 20”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 78.57+8.71 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 14-24
- skill:
- 8.71
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 78.57
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsMinnesota VikingsOct 4, 2026
Minnesota Vikings 27 — Dolphins 13
“Moody's pick: Vikings 27, Dolphins 13”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 90.48-21.79 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 10-15
- skill:
- −21.79
- they picked:
- MIN
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 90.48
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 14
- Score PredictionsJacksonville JaguarsOct 4, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars 34 — Bengals 31
“Moody's pick: Jaguars 34, Bengals 31”
Hit · 95Scored 95.24a naive guess scored 40.48+100.21 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 22-17
- skill:
- 100.21
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 95.24
- baseline:
- 40.48
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 5
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsKansas City ChiefsOct 4, 2026
Kansas City Chiefs 30 — Raiders 24
“Moody's pick: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 45.24+87.14 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-27
- skill:
- 87.14
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 45.24
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 6
- Score PredictionsSeattle SeahawksOct 4, 2026
Seattle Seahawks 28 — Chargers 21
“Moody's pick: Seahawks 28, Chargers 21”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 85.71+26.14 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 23-30
- skill:
- 26.14
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 85.71
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 7
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 7
- Score PredictionsChicago BearsOct 4, 2026
Chicago Bears 23 — Jets 20
“Moody's pick: Bears 23, Jets 20”
Hit · 81Scored 80.95a naive guess scored 76.19+8.71 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 12-23
- skill:
- 8.71
- they picked:
- CHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 80.95
- baseline:
- 76.19
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 11
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsDallas CowboysOct 4, 2026
Dallas Cowboys 23 — Texans 19
“Moody's pick: Cowboys 23, Texans 19”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 42.86+104.57 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 34-30
- skill:
- 104.57
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 42.86
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 4
- Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsOct 4, 2026
Buffalo Bills 30 — Patriots 27
“Moody's pick: Bills 30, Patriots 27”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 45.24+8.71 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 29-26
- skill:
- 8.71
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 45.24
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 3
- Score PredictionsGreen Bay PackersOct 4, 2026
Green Bay Packers 24 — Buccaneers 17
“Moody's pick: Packers 24, Buccaneers 17”
Hit · 90Scored 90.48a naive guess scored 45.24+82.79 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 17-14
- skill:
- 82.79
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 90.48
- baseline:
- 45.24
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 3
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 7
- Score PredictionsLos Angeles RamsOct 4, 2026
Los Angeles Rams 37 — Eagles 26
“Moody's pick: Rams 37, Eagles 26”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 42.86+74.07 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 24-20
- skill:
- 74.07
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 42.86
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 11
- Score PredictionsArizona CardinalsOct 4, 2026
Arizona Cardinals 20 — Giants 13
“Moody's pick: Cardinals 20, Giants 13”
Miss · 38Scored 38.1a naive guess scored 73.81-65.36 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 24-36
- skill:
- −65.36
- they picked:
- ARI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 38.1
- baseline:
- 73.81
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 12
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 7
- Score PredictionsBaltimore RavensOct 4, 2026
Baltimore Ravens 28 — Titans 19
“Moody's pick: Ravens 28, Titans 19”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 88.1+8.71 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 18-24
- skill:
- 8.71
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 88.1
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 6
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 1
- predicted margin:
- 9
- Score PredictionsIndianapolis ColtsOct 4, 2026
Indianapolis Colts 31 — Commanders 23
“Moody's pick: Colts 31, Commanders 23”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 10.86+123.92 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 30-13
- skill:
- 123.92
- they picked:
- IND
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 10.86
- difficulty:
- 1.83
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 15
- naive home margin:
- 0.56
- predicted margin:
- 8
- Score PredictionsNew Orleans SaintsOct 4, 2026
New Orleans Saints 34 — Falcons 31
“Moody's pick: Saints 34, Falcons 31”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Mike KadlickScore Predictions · Detroit LionsClose · 43Kadlick predicts a Sunday night shootout in Charlotte, with Detroit beating Carolina 41–38 after four fourth-quarter lead changes to move to 3–1 while the Panthers fall to 1–3.
- Pete MartuneacGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsHit · 100Martuneac expects the Bears to beat the Jets comfortably in Week 4, with Tyson Bagent playing efficiently, Dillon Thieneman picking off Geno Smith twice, and Colston Loveland breaking out as a two-touchdown receiver.
- Jacob WestendorfScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersHit · 95Westendorf expects the Packers to narrowly beat the Buccaneers, reasoning that Tampa Bay can't generate enough offense with an undrafted rookie making his first start.
- Bill HuberScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersHit · 83Huber picks Green Bay to beat Tampa Bay in a low-scoring game, arguing the Buccaneers' offensive limitations behind undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will be the difference and the Packers will move to 2-2.
- Patricia TrainaScore Predictions · Arizona CardinalsMiss · 36Traina picks the Cardinals to beat the Giants 23-17, citing New York's red-zone drought and the loss of the RPO game with Jameis Winston replacing the injured Jaxson Dart.
- Tyler BrownGame Outcome Picks · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Brown expects a grind of a game that the Raiders keep close, but believes Kansas City's weapons and experience in tight games carry the Chiefs to the win.
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Brooke CersosimoScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 50Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including the Bears over the Jets, the Cowboys in the Battle for Texas and an upset of the Chiefs by the undefeated Raiders.
- Dan ParrScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 50Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, taking the 49ers to move to 4-0 over Denver, the Saints at home on Monday night and the Steelers in Cleveland.
- Jeremy PargoScore Predictions · New York JetsMiss · 29Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including an upset of the Colts by Washington in London and a Buccaneers win over the Packers.
- Gennaro FiliceScore Predictions · Denver BroncosMiss · 31Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including the Bills over a struggling Patriots offense, the Eagles over the Rams and the only Browns pick of the panel.
- Bobby KownackScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersClose · 50Picked winners and exact scores for every Week 4 game, including upsets by the Jets in Chicago and the Buccaneers over the Packers, plus the Jaguars at Cincinnati.
- Seth WalderScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersClose · 50Walder made a 'bold prediction' for each Week 4 game — including receiving and rushing yardage marks, sacks, an interception and a Dolphins upset — and picked final scores for all 15 games on the slate.