Matt HarmonJun 5, 2025

In a snake-draft of the best NFL wide receivers for the 2025 season, Harmon's ten selections (at overall picks 1, 4, 7, 10, 13, 16, 19, 22, 25 and 28) headlined by Ja'Marr Chase at No. 1 and Nico Collins at No. 4. They also made several depth-chart calls, including Travis Hunter as Jacksonville's No. 2 receiver behind Brian Thomas Jr., and predicted Riley Leonard will make starts for the Colts.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 5calls landed4 hits · 1 close call · 1 waiting

84Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls

83.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

5 of 6Settled1 still waiting

1Waitingnot graded yet

What Matt Harmon said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I'm gonna go ahead and give it Jamar Chase off the top here because he's coming off the best year.

Matt Harmon, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode: Aaron Rodgers Signs and Top-30 Wide Receivers in the NFL
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJun 5, 2025
GradedAug 5–7, 2026

1Top Player Lists“Harmon's picks in the top-30 wide receiver draft: Jamar Chase (1), Nico Collins (4), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7), Malik Nabers (10), Ladd McConkey (13), Garrett Wilson (16), Brandon Aiyuk (19), Chris Godwin (22), Travis Hunter (25), Zay Flowers (28)”
2Brian Thomas Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart“He will probably be the second fiddle on his team because Brian Thomas Junior is really really good.”
3Zay Flowers to be 2nd on the depth chart“I feel like it's a little disrespectful to not have Zay Flowers taken even if he is the second best wide receiver on his team.”
4Michael Pittman to be 2nd on the depth chart“Michael Pittman's not coming off his best year... He's like a rock solid number two receiver.”
5Riley Leonard to be 1st on the depth chart“Riley Leonard is probably gonna make starts for this team this year. I mean, I just think that's very much in the range of outcomes.”
6Travis Hunter to be 2nd on the depth chart“He will probably be the second fiddle on his team because Brian Thomas Junior is really really good... and I think that he will primarily be a wide receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
“Harmon's picks in the top-30 wide receiver draft: Jamar Chase…”¹	Top Player Lists	—	70.24	50	+40.48
Brian Thomas Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 3	83.33	83.33	0
Zay Flowers to be 2nd on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	91.67	100	−16.67
Michael Pittman to be 2nd on the depth chart⁴	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	91.67	91.67	0
Riley Leonard to be 1st on the depth chart⁵	Depth Chart Calls	No. 3	83.33	91.67	−16.67
Travis Hunter to be 2nd on the depth chart⁶	Depth Chart Calls	—	—	—	—
6 calls · 4 hits · 1 close call · 1 waiting			84	83.3

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 depth chart calls and 1 top player list — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 84 out of 100, against 83.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Top Player Lists
“Harmon's picks in the top-30 wide receiver draft: Jamar Chase (1), Nico Collins (4), Amon-Ra St. Brown (7), Malik Nabers (10), Ladd McConkey (13), Garrett Wilson (16), Brandon Aiyuk (19), Chris Godwin (22), Travis Hunter (25), Zay Flowers (28)”
VerdictClose
70.24Close · naive 50
70.24this call50a naive guess20.24better than naive2difficulty+40.48skill
How this was scored
naive:
a coin-flip ordering scores 50
skill:
40.48
placed:
8
season:
2025
players:
10
accuracy:
70.24
baseline:
50
by position:
WR 8: 70.24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
could not place:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Brian Thomas Jr.Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by receptions
83.33Hit · naive 83.33
83.33this call83.33a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
JAX
skill:
0
player:
Brian Thomas Jr.
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Zay Flowers Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers to be 2nd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 2 · by receptions
91.67Hit · naive 100
91.67this call100a naive guess−8.33worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
BAL
skill:
−16.67
player:
Zay Flowers
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
WR
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Depth Chart Calls Michael Pittman Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman to be 2nd on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 2 · by receptions
91.67Hit · naive 91.67
91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
IND
skill:
0
player:
Michael Pittman
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
WR
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
5Depth Chart Calls Riley Leonard Indianapolis Colts
Riley Leonard to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by passing yards
83.33Hit · naive 91.67
83.33this call91.67a naive guess−8.34worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
IND
skill:
−16.67
player:
Riley Leonard
season:
2025
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Depth Chart Calls Travis Hunter Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Hunter to be 2nd on the depth chart
VerdictWaiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
84naive 83.3

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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