Joe DolanJul 5, 2025

Dolan sees no fantasy value in Darren Waller's return with Miami (projecting them as roughly TE33), but loves Devon Achane's passing-game upside with Jonnu Smith gone, Rashee Rice as a discounted target hog who leads the Chiefs in targets, Kenneth Walker as a bell-cow at a cheap price, Jordan Addison as badly underpriced, Darnell Mooney as too cheap, Isaiah Likely as a late-round breakout, and Devaughn Vele as the Broncos' starting slot man.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 10calls landed3 hits · 1 close call · 6 misses · all settled

35Average accuracyout of 100, across 10 calls

54.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

10 of 10Settlednone still waiting

0Waitingnot graded yet

What Joe Dolan said

We ran our projections at Fantasy Points immediately after the trade and he came out as tight end thirty three.

Joe Dolan, the lead quote

Where it was said: FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode: FantasyPros - 12 Draft Picks With MASSIVE UPSIDE You Should Be Targeting in 2025 (Ep. 1603)
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJul 4, 2025
GradedAug 5–19, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses
Sleeper Calls	2	0	4
Player Season Numbers	0	0	1
Depth Chart Calls	1	0	0
Positional Finishes	0	1	1
All	3	1	6

How each call scored

10 checkable claims — 6 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 depth chart call and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 13 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 10 have settled, averaging 35 out of 100, against 54.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Sleeper Calls2 hits · 4 missesShow ▸

Darnell Mooney to outplay his draft cost (ECR wide receiver forty nine)
“But I just think Darnell Mooney's too cheap and because of that cost, I have been drafting him a lot.”
Darnell Mooney Atlanta Falcons
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
ECR wide receiver forty nine
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
−200
player:
Darnell Mooney
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR31
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR80
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Rashee Rice to outplay his draft cost (ECR Wide Receiver nineteen)
“You're already getting a discount in ADP, You're getting a discount and expert consensus ranking. I think he's got an opportunity to finishes a real wide receiver one with Patrick Mahomes this year”
Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
ECR Wide Receiver nineteen
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Rashee Rice
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR97
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR41
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Jordan Addison to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking)
“Jordan Addison is way underpriced to me... He's wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking... The thirty fifth in the ranking for a guy who's been the twentieth wide receiver over the last two years.”
Jordan Addison Minnesota Vikings
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
wide receiver thirty five by expert consensus ranking
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
−200
player:
Jordan Addison
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR18
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR43
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
De'Von Achane to outplay his draft cost (expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round)
“he is the expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round. But with John new Smith gone, I think there's massive upside for a Chan in the passing game.”
De'Von Achane Miami Dolphins
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
−200
player:
De'Von Achane
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
cost round:
2
had to beat:
RB6
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB7
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the cost the source quoted — expert Consensus RB six he's going in the second round
Think this is wrong?
Isaiah Likely to outplay his draft cost (drafted around tight end twenty one)
“But I like Likely at his price way more than I like Mark Andrews, and I could see him taking a step forward into being a sixty catch tight end.”
Isaiah Likely Baltimore Ravens
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
drafted around tight end twenty one
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
−200
player:
Isaiah Likely
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
TE
had to beat:
TE13
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
TE50
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
Kenneth Walker III to outplay his draft cost (drafted in like the fifth sixth round)
“So I see a potential bell Cow profile getting drafted in like the fifth sixth round... I love Kenneth Walker this year.”
Kenneth Walker III Seattle Seahawks
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
drafted in like the fifth sixth round
naive:
the draft market was right and he returned about what he cost
skill:
200
player:
Kenneth Walker III
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
RB
cost round:
6
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB21
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the cost the source quoted — drafted in like the fifth sixth round
Think this is wrong?

Player Season Numbers1 missShow ▸

Isaiah Likely to record 60 receptions
“I could see him taking a step forward into being a sixty catch tight end.”
Isaiah Likely Baltimore Ravens
27called 60
0Miss
0 − 64.42 naive = −64.42 × 2 difficulty = −128.84 skill
How this was scored
naive:
32.84
skill:
−128.84
what happened:
27
player:
Isaiah Likely
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
64.42
they said:
60
statistic:
receptions
difficulty:
2
last season:
42
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
23.69
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?

Depth Chart Calls1 hitShow ▸

Rashee Rice to be 1st on the depth chart
“it's like a ten year run of either Travis Kelcey or Tyreek Hill leading the Chiefs and targets. I think that changes this year. I think Rashee Rice gets it done.”
Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs
No. 1called No. 1 · by receptions
100Hit
100 − 83.33 naive = 16.67 × 2 difficulty = +33.33 skill
How this was scored
club:
KC
skill:
33.33
player:
Rashee Rice
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
83.33
position:
WR
naive slot:
3
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
receptions
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Positional Finishes1 close call · 1 missShow ▸

Rashee Rice to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
“I think he's got an opportunity to finishes a real wide receiver one with Patrick Mahomes this year”
Rashee Rice Kansas City Chiefs
Finished #41called #12 · by fantasy points
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Rashee Rice
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
WR
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
where he finished last season
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
97
actual finish:
41
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
Darren Waller to finish top 33 at his position, by fantasy points
“We ran our projections at Fantasy Points immediately after the trade and he came out as tight end thirty three.”
Darren Waller Miami Dolphins
Finished #27called #33 · by fantasy points
50Close
50 − 0 naive = 50 × 2 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
player:
Darren Waller
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
50
baseline:
0
position:
TE
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at TE
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
27
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
33
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons, Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs, Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings, De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins, Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens, Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks, Darren Waller

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.
Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.

More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.