Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 30, 2025
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Derek Brown said
Second year of breakout is here, boys.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - High-Upside Fantasy Football Draft Picks | Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates (Ep. 1678)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 30, 2025
- GradedAug 7–19, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fantasy Bust Calls | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sleeper Calls | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Depth Chart Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 9 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
How each call scored
17 checkable claims — 6 positional finishes, 5 sleeper calls, 4 fantasy bust calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 21 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 17 have settled, averaging 54.1 out of 100, against 23.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Fantasy Bust Calls2 hits · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Zay Flowers to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver two)
“will you find say Flowers and my players to avoid article Yes, because he was priced as a wide receiver two. I don't want to pay a wide receiver two price tag for him”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver two
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Zay Flowers
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR8
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Xavier Worthy to fall short of his draft cost (wide receiver twenty four)
“So in real time ADP, he's around wide receiver twenty four. I just to me, I don't see any meat on the bone where you're drafting him there.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- wide receiver twenty four
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR32
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Marquise Brown to fall short of his draft cost (back of the... final round picks)
“Marque's Hollywood Brown Again, all of these guys that are like back of the you know, final round picks for people, count me out on all of them”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- back of the... final round picks
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Marquise Brown
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR153
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR46
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Keon Coleman to fall short of his draft cost (back of the... final round picks)
“when I was writing up the top two fifty players like Kean Coleman fully out”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- bust
- cost:
- back of the... final round picks
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Keon Coleman
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR60
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR62
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Sleeper Calls5 hitsShow ▸Hide ▾
Travis Hunter to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall)
“I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him at fifty second overall. Right now in real time ADP, he is wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall. I am aggressively ahead”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty one and seventy fourth overall
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- secondary
- had to beat:
- secondary24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- secondary1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Jalen Coker to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver seventy six)
“Jalen Cocher is the one where you're making that bet for basically free... he's wide receiver seventy six, one hundred and sixty third overall”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver seventy six
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR83
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR71
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
DeVonta Smith to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver three)
“In some places his ADP is a wide receiver three. Okay, that's ridiculous. So he's gonna pay off even if AJ Brown stays healthy”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- DeVonta Smith
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR28
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR25
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty five)
“The guy that I want to make sure I'm leaving almost every single draft with... is Ricky Pearsall... His real time ADP... is wide receiver thirty five.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty five
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Emeka Egbuka to outplay his draft cost (wide receiver thirty three)
“real time ADP he's wide receiver thirty three... I just keep moving him up, Just keep moving them up.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- wide receiver thirty three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Emeka Egbuka
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Positional Finishes1 hit · 5 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Travis Hunter to finish top 25 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have my wide receiver twenty five. I have him at fifty second overall.”
Finished #1called #25 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Travis Hunter
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- CB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — the startable tier at CB
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 24
- actual finish:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 25
George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have George Pickens ranked as a top fifteen wide receiver.”
Finished #4called #15 · by fantasy points8.33Miss8.33 − 0 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 41
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 15
Ricky Pearsall to finish top 26 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have moved him up to wide receiver twenty six.”
Finished #78called #26 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 75 naive = −75 × 2 difficulty = −150 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −150
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 75
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 81
- actual finish:
- 78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 26
Xavier Worthy to finish top 36 at his position, by fantasy points
“Will you have him at thirty six... that's why I bumped him up into the wide receiver three range.”
Finished #59called #36 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Xavier Worthy
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 32
- actual finish:
- 59
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 36
Jalen Coker to finish top 52 at his position, by fantasy points
“So I moved him up. He is my wide receiver fifty two right now.”
Finished #71called #52 · by fantasy points0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 83
- actual finish:
- 71
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 52
Jaylen Waddle to finish top 20 at his position, by fantasy points
“I have Waddle ranked ahead of Tyreek Hill. I have Wattle at wide receiver twenty”
Finished #19called #20 · by fantasy points91.67Hit91.67 − 0 naive = 91.67 × 2 difficulty = +183.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 183.33
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 48
- actual finish:
- 19
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 20
Player Season Numbers1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Jaylen Waddle to record 100 receptions
“I think we could see him revisit the role that he had in his rookie season and he catches a hundred passes”
64called 10028Miss28 − 33.83 naive = −5.83 × 2 difficulty = −11.66 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 42.83
- skill:
- −11.66
- what happened:
- 64
- player:
- Jaylen Waddle
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 28
- baseline:
- 33.83
- they said:
- 100
- statistic:
- receptions
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 58
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 27.65
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Depth Chart Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Jalen Coker to be 2nd on the depth chart
“he is going to be from the word go, and I'm not being hyperbolic about this, he is the Carolina Panthers wide receiver two”
No. 3called No. 2 · by receptions91.67Hit91.67 − 91.67 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- CAR
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Jalen Coker
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- WR
- naive slot:
- 4
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- receptions
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Who this take is about
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens, Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars, Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs, Marquise Brown, Jalen Coker, Carolina Panthers, DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills, Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys, Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More positional finishes
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nick Wright · Positional Finishes · Puka Nacua · Close 75
Nick Wright picked the Ravens to beat Houston this weekend even with Lamar Jackson possibly out (leaning on Derrick Henry and Cooper Rush), the Chiefs to win in Jacksonville, and the Rams to beat the 49ers on Thursday night. They also laid out an AFC playoff field of Bills, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers and Colts, projected the Chiefs' receiver pecking order once Rashee Rice returns, and called Justin Jefferson the best receiver in football with Puka Nacua a top-five receiver.Rich Hribar · Positional Finishes · Matthew Stafford · Hit 100
Hribar published their 2023 fantasy football quarterback tiers, ordering 41 quarterbacks into eight tiers that reflect how they prioritize drafting the position, with Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes in the top tier as the trio most likely to finish as the overall QB1.Chris Brockman · Positional Finishes · Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Hit 100
Brockman argued Jaxon Smith-Njigba is already the best receiver in the NFL and deserves to be the highest paid, called their shot that three quarterbacks (Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Carson Beck) go in the first round with Mendoza first overall, and suggested New England is headed for a 7-10 season.Pat Gustavson · Positional Finishes · Bijan Robinson · Close 75
Gustafson picks the Patriots, Bills, Seahawks and Bears in the divisional round with a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl, predicts Mike Tomlin and Matt LaFleur stay, Aaron Rodgers returns to Pittsburgh, and lays out their own coaching landing spots.Chad Ochocinco Johnson · Positional Finishes · Christian Gonzalez · Miss 0
Ochocinco says Christian Gonzalez belongs in the top-five DB conversation, believes Kyler Murray will be elsewhere next year, expects Chase to get a one-game suspension, backs Sam Darnold to bounce back, and floats Jaxon Smith-Njigba reaching 2,000 receiving yards. They also remind listeners they called the Bears and Panthers as teams to watch before the season.