Steve Deace· Nov 4, 2022

Deace forecast a "red tsunami": Republicans gaining roughly 54 House seats, winning 56 Senate seats, and capturing governorships in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado and Pennsylvania. He also said Ron DeSantis would set a Florida record for the largest GOP gubernatorial margin, that Chuck Grassley would not lose in Iowa, and that Kim Reynolds would win big.

“Ron DeSantis will break the record for the largest margin of victory by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida state history.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 9 have settled, averaging 26.2 out of 100, against 81.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

56They said

49What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“Steve's final senate crystal ball has Republicans gaining six seats for a 56 to 44 advantage.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 80-80 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−80
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
a 56 to 44 advantage
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
0
baseline:
80
they said:
56
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Josh Shapiro
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Doug Mastriano
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Steve in Iowa says, Tuesday upset. Grassley loses in Iowa... He's not losing. Okay?”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Chuck Grassley
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Chuck Grassley
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-mn
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tim Walz
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Scott Jensen
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 4, 2022
“Ron DeSantis will break the record for the largest margin of victory by a Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida state history. The current record is Jeb Bush's 13 win in 2002. And I think Ron DeSantis is gonna beat that record.”
Miss · 36Scored 36a naive guess scored 0+36 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
36
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.4
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
36
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
13
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
19.4
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“Steve has GOP governors in 36 states including New York, Minnesota, Colorado, and Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-co
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Jared Polis
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Heidi Ganahl
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“I mean, Kim Reynolds is going to Yes. Whatever the margin you think DeSantis is going to hit, hers is, I think, going... I mean, I could see that like sixty forty”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ia
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kim Reynolds
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Iowa gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kim Reynolds
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“Well well, basically, I took the ninety four election, which was, I believe, 54 seats. And and they and they picked up 14 of those already and then just added 40 to get to to 54. That's essentially what I what I predicted.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−55
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
0
baseline:
55
they said:
54
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.