Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 31, 2024
Mosher's Week 18 power rankings for the 2024 season, ordering all 32 NFL teams with Kansas City first and the Giants last. Along the way they predict Washington beats Dallas in Week 18, expects Atlanta to miss the playoffs and Indianapolis to miss as well, says Houston will host a playoff game as a likely heavy underdog, expects the Rams to host a home playoff game, and thinks Jerod Mayo could be a one-and-done coach.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromIt's hard to imagine anyone going into Kansas City and beating them in the playoffs at this point.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 18 Power Rankings: Lions vs. Vikings Set for Top-5 Matchup | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Dec 31, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidDec 31, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Washington Commanders to beat Dallas Cowboys“With a win against Dallas in Week 18, they can win 12 games and clinch the No. 6 seed in the NFC. That is easier said than done... But look for Dan Quinn's squad to get that done this time around.”
- 2Power Rankings“Here are our updated power rankings going into the final week of the 2024 season: NFL Week 17 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) ... 32. New York Giants (3-13)”
- 3Houston Texans to make the playoffs“Houston will still host a playoff game in Round 1, but don't be surprised if it is a heavy underdog in that matchup.”
- 4Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs“The Rams have turned things around in the second half of the season and will be back in the postseason... the fact that they will be hosting a home playoff game is pretty wild”
- 5Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations“Now, the Falcons don't control their own destiny in the NFC South, and it's become likely that they will miss the postseason again.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders to beat Dallas Cowboys1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +106 | |
| “Here are our updated power rankings going into the final week…”2 | Power Rankings | — | 98.81 | 67.38 | +33.32 | |
| Houston Texans to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs4 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations5 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 5 calls · 4 hits · 1 waiting | 99.7 | 66.8 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 99.7 out of 100, against 66.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksWashington Commanders
Washington Commanders to beat Dallas Cowboys
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.06difficulty=+106skillClosing line (Jan 5): Commanders by 7 · favorite pick, Commanders about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 23-19
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
“Here are our updated power rankings going into the final week of the 2024 season: NFL Week 17 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) ... 32. New York Giants (3-13)”
VerdictHit98.81Hit · naive 67.3898.81this call−67.38a naive guess=31.43better than naive×1.06difficulty=+33.32skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 33.32
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.81
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 1
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.06difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
4Playoff PicksLos Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.06difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
5Surprise Team CallsAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
99.7naive 66.8
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Minnesota Vikings · Miss 0
Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.