Marcus Mosher· Dec 31, 2024
Mosher's Week 18 power rankings for the 2024 season, ordering all 32 NFL teams with Kansas City first and the Giants last. Along the way he predicts Washington beats Dallas in Week 18, expects Atlanta to miss the playoffs and Indianapolis to miss as well, says Houston will host a playoff game as a likely heavy underdog, expects the Rams to host a home playoff game, and thinks Jerod Mayo could be a one-and-done coach.
“It's hard to imagine anyone going into Kansas City and beating them in the playoffs at this point.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Dec 31, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
5 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 game outcome pick, 1 power ranking and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
4 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 99.7 out of 100, against 66.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
5 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersDec 31, 2024
Washington Commanders to beat Dallas Cowboys
“With a win against Dallas in Week 18, they can win 12 games and clinch the No. 6 seed in the NFC. That is easier said than done... But look for Dan Quinn's squad to get that done this time around.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 23-19
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Power RankingsDec 31, 2024
“Here are our updated power rankings going into the final week of the 2024 season: NFL Week 17 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) ... 32. New York Giants (3-13)”
Hit · 99Scored 98.81a naive guess scored 67.38+33.32 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 33.32
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 98.81
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Playoff PicksHouston TexansDec 31, 2024
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“Houston will still host a playoff game in Round 1, but don't be surprised if it is a heavy underdog in that matchup.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles RamsDec 31, 2024
Los Angeles Rams to make the playoffs
“The Rams have turned things around in the second half of the season and will be back in the postseason... the fact that they will be hosting a home playoff game is pretty wild”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAR
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Surprise Team CallsAtlanta FalconsDec 31, 2024
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
“Now, the Falcons don't control their own destiny in the NFC South, and it's become likely that they will miss the postseason again.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 48Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Gregg RosenthalGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Outside of his spread picks, Rosenthal referenced his season-long pick of the Texans to win the Super Bowl and said he expects Houston to beat the Colts on Sunday.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Minnesota VikingsMiss · 0Eisen argues Ohio State will produce multiple top-10 picks — Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs — becoming the first school with three defensive players in the top 10, and that Styles will not be available at No. 12 to the Cowboys. He also thinks Fernando Mendoza is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick and expects the Raiders to draft him, and picks Trey Lance over Anthony Richardson to start a game first, Micah Parsons to fetch a bigger trade return than Maxx Crosby, Kirk Cousins as the released QB most likely to reach the playoffs, and J.J. McCarthy as the Vikings' Week 1 starter.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.