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TJ Jefferson#66 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 29, 2025

Jefferson picked Micah Parsons to out-sack any two Cowboys, and ordered the AFC West as Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, saying all four teams finish with winning records and three make the playoffs.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original

0 of 2calls landed1 close call · 1 miss · all settled
35Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
30A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
#66TJ Jefferson’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What TJ Jefferson said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I got the chargers third, the broncos second. And until, you know, Patrick Mahomes doesn't exist anymore on a football field, I'm sticking with the Chiefs.
TJ Jefferson, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
The episode
AFC West Predictions
The original
Hear the original
  1. SaidAug 29, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13–17, 2026
  1. 1Kansas City Chiefs to win the division“I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”
  2. 2Power Rankings“I don't mean any disrespect to Raider nation, but I got you guys coming in fourth... I got the chargers third, the broncos second... I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Kansas City Chiefs to win the division1Division Winners—000
“I don't mean any disrespect to Raider nation, but I got you…”2Power Rankings—7060+20
2 calls · 1 close call · 1 miss · all settled3530

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 35 out of 100, against 30 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Division WinnersKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to win the division

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    0
    method:
    division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    last season's winner of the same division
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    won the division:
    no
    Think this is wrong?
  2. 2Power Rankings

    “I don't mean any disrespect to Raider nation, but I got you guys coming in fourth... I got the chargers third, the broncos second... I'm sticking with the Chiefs.”

    VerdictClose
    70Close · naive 60
    70this call60a naive guess10better than naive2difficulty+20skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    20
    method:
    spearman
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    70
    baseline:
    60
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    teams ranked:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    35naive 30

Others on the same people

More division winners

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