Gregg Rosenthal· Sep 5, 2025
Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; he also likes the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.
“it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game”
said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast) · read the original →
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence above are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 16.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksNew York GiantsSep 5, 2025
New York Giants to beat Commanders
“I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the road this week... it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 6-21
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- NYG
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- WAS
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksDetroit LionsSep 5, 2025
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers
“Your Lions are two and a half point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers... I just think the Lions are a better team... This is probably be my number one pick”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 13-27
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- GB
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Carolina Panthers
“Jaguars minus three and a half is my pick... I just think they're a way more complete team”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- JAX
- score:
- 10-26
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- JAX
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Season Win TotalsJacksonville JaguarsSep 5, 2025
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins
“The Jaguars are a team I think is going to be great this year in terms of versus like their win total for instance, I really like they're over seven and a half.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- JAX
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- 0
- what happened:
- 13
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 8
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksNew York JetsSep 5, 2025
New York Jets to beat Steelers
“I like the Jets giving up three points to the Steelers.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 34-32
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- NYJ
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Game Outcome PicksMiami DolphinsSep 5, 2025
Miami Dolphins to beat Colts
“The one that was the closest to making my top three was the Dolphins... I kind of just liked them in this spot having a one week, one week win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-200 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- IND
- score:
- 8-33
- skill:
- -200
- they picked:
- MIA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.