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Gregg Rosenthal#39 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 5, 2025

Rosenthal's Week 1 picks: the Giants win at Washington, the Lions beat the Packers, and the Jaguars beat the Panthers; they also like the Jets over the Steelers and the Dolphins over the Colts, and expects Jacksonville to clear 7.5 wins.

Said on air or in an interview · Around the NFL (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 3calls landed1 hit · 2 misses · all settled
33.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls
66.7A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
3 of 3Settlednone still waiting
#39Gregg Rosenthal’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Gregg Rosenthal said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game
Gregg Rosenthal, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Around the NFL (podcast)
The episode
Week 1 Picks with Cynthia Frelund
The original
Hear the original
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Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidSep 5, 2025
  2. GradedAug 17–Oct 9, 2026
  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins“The Jaguars are a team I think is going to be great this year in terms of versus like their win total for instance, I really like they're over seven and a half.”
  2. 2New York Giants to beat Commanders“I'm going Giants plus six against the Commanders on the road this week... it just wouldn't shock me if the Giants come out and win this game”
  3. 3Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers“Your Lions are two and a half point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers... I just think the Lions are a better team... This is probably be my number one pick”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins1Season Win Totals131000+200
New York Giants to beat Commanders2Game Outcome Picks—0100−200
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers3Game Outcome Picks—0100−200
3 calls · 1 hit · 2 misses · all settled33.366.7

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

wins
over 7.5They said
13What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Season Win TotalsJacksonville Jaguars

    Jacksonville Jaguars to finish with 8 wins

    What happened13called over 7.5
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    JAX
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    200
    what happened:
    13
    scored:
    hit or miss on the line
    season:
    2025
    window:
    8 to 17
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive guess said:
    under
    they said:
    over 7.5
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksNew York Giants

    New York Giants to beat Commanders

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 7): Commanders by 6 · underdog pick, Giants 28%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    WAS
    score:
    6-21
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    NYG
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    WAS
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksDetroit Lions

    Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers

    VerdictMiss
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 7): Packers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Lions 48%, Packers 52%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    13-27
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    DET
    season:
    2025
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    GB
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once

    33.3naive 66.7

Who this take is about

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