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Carmen VitaliSep 26, 2026

In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. They also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.

Said on air or in an interview · Fox Sports Radio (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 5calls landed3 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting
60Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
60A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Carmen Vitali said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Road favorites. I don't buy it. I think the Denver has figured some things out.
Carmen Vitali, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Fox Sports Radio (podcast)
The episode
Fox Sports Saturday with Carmen Vitali and Tracy Sandler give their best NFL picks and discuss the QB injuries going around the league
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 26
  2. PlayedSep 27–28
  3. GradedSep 28–29
  1. 1Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago“Three and a half road point favorites. That's crazy to me. But I also think it's probably fair, given that you don't know who's starting at quarterback for the Bears. I'm going Philly.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers“Buffalo looks incredible unstoppable improbable all of the things so it's a it's a big spread uh i think i'm still taking it”
  3. 3Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Minnesota“I'm going to take Tampa. They're at home. They have to figure some things out at some point... It being at home in the heat, I'm going to give it to them.”
  4. 4Denver Broncos to beat Rams“We'll start with the Rams and Broncos... Road favorites. I don't buy it. I don't buy it. I think the Denver has figured some things out.”
  5. 5Baltimore Ravens to beat Dallas“if the field is that bad, who do I trust more to run the football? It's Derrick Henry and the Baltimore Ravens, so I'm also going Ravens.”
  6. 6Availability Calls“my prediction is he misses two to three weeks. / I think so, too.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago1Game Outcome PicksBears 27–70100−189
Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers2Game Outcome PicksBills 24–161001000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Minnesota3Game Outcome PicksVikings 23–16000
Denver Broncos to beat Rams4Game Outcome PicksBroncos 30–261001000
Baltimore Ravens to beat Dallas5Game Outcome PicksRavens 34–311000+189
“my prediction is he misses two to three weeks. / I think so,…”6Availability Calls————
6 calls · 3 hits · 2 misses · 1 waiting6060

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

6 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 60 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to beat Chicago

    What happenedBears 27–7Eagles at Bears
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill

    Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5 · favorite pick, Eagles 64%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    7-27
    skill:
    −189
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills to beat Chargers

    What happenedBills 24–16Chargers at Bills
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Bills by 7 · favorite pick, Bills about 3 in 4 (73%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    16-24
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Minnesota

    What happenedVikings 23–16Vikings at Buccaneers
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Vikings by 1.5 · a toss-up, Vikings 50%, Buccaneers 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    23-16
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    TB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Rams

    What happenedBroncos 30–26Rams at Broncos
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.89difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Broncos by 1.5 · a toss-up, Rams 50%, Broncos 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    26-30
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksBaltimore Ravens

    Baltimore Ravens to beat Dallas

    What happenedRavens 34–31Ravens at Cowboys
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.89difficulty+189skill

    Closing line (Sep 27): Ravens by 3 · favorite pick, Ravens 60%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BAL
    score:
    34-31
    skill:
    189
    they picked:
    BAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    DAL
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Availability CallsCaleb WilliamsChicago Bears

    “my prediction is he misses two to three weeks. / I think so, too.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  7. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    60naive 60

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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