Jamie Erdahl#31 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 3, 2025
Jamie picked Baker Mayfield as their 2025 NFL MVP and said Tampa Bay would go into Atlanta and make noise in Week 1.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Jamie Erdahl said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromin twenty twenty five, your NFL MVP... Baker freaking may deal
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- GMFB Wednesday Hour 1: Eagles Opener, Chargers/Chiefs in Brazil, MVP Predictions
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidSep 3, 2025
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons“I think Tampa Bay has the opportunity to go in one pm Eastern on Fox and just be like, guys, remember who's won this division... Not only make noise, like I think they can hit the mute button”
- 2Baker Mayfield to win NFL MVP“in twenty twenty five, your NFL MVP. Look at that Baker freaking may deal”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Baker Mayfield to win NFL MVP2 | Award Picks | Matthew Stafford won | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled | 50 | 0 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive2 checkable claims — 1 award pick and 1 game outcome pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat Atlanta Falcons
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillClosing line (Sep 7): Buccaneers by 1.5 · a toss-up, Buccaneers 51%, Falcons 49%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 23-20
- skill:
- 200
- they picked:
- TB
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
2Award PicksBaker MayfieldTampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield to win NFL MVP
What happenedMatthew Stafford woncalled Baker Mayfield0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×2difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Josh Allen, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Baker Mayfield
- season:
- 2025
- who won:
- Matthew Stafford
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
50naive 0
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Brandon Carney · Trade and Signing Calls · Mike Evans · Miss 0
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Wright argued the Jaguars are the AFC's most complete team, calling them the considerable favorite for the No. 1 seed and the only club essentially locked into the playoffs. They also picked Tampa Bay to upset Chicago, had Kansas City sweeping its next three games, liked New England over Green Bay by about a field goal, and updated their Super Bowl matchup to Chiefs–49ers.Donte Johnson · Game Outcome Picks · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 0
The former NFL safety picked the Buccaneers to upset the Bears in their Week 9 matchup, arguing Todd Bowles' defense would frustrate Caleb Williams.Zac Cornelius · Score Predictions · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Miss 29
Zach projected the Buccaneers to beat the Bears 24-12.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.