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Thomas MartinezOct 12, 2026

Martinez argues the Chargers will be sellers at the 2026 trade deadline, predicting Khalil Mack is dealt (for an early-to-mid Day 3 pick) and that linebacker Daiyan Henley could also be moved for a mid Day 3 pick, while suggesting the club acquire edge rusher Malik Herring and blocking tight end Ko Kieft for late-round picks.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

1 of 1calls landed1 hit · 3 waiting
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 1 call
0A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
1 of 4Settled3 still waiting
3Waitingnot graded yet

What Thomas Martinez said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Chargers are likely to deal Khalil Mack to his destination of choice.
Thomas Martinez, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Chargers Trade Deadline Big Board: Realistic Targets and Trade Assets
The original
Read the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidOct 12
  2. GradedNov 11
  1. 1Daiyan Henley to move — “could leave the franchise; would likely net a mid day three pick”“It would be hard to see homegrown local linebacker Daiyan Henley leave the franchise but he is on an expiring deal ... He would also likely net a mid day three pick.”
  2. 2Malik Herring to move to Los Angeles Chargers“The Chargers could use him if Khalil Mack is gone and potentially get an early look at a potential long-term depth piece. Herring likely would not cost more than a late-round pick swap.”
  3. 3Ko Kieft to move to Los Angeles Chargers“Kieft would likely not cost more than a late Day 3 pick.”
  4. 4Khalil Mack to move — “likely to deal Khalil Mack to his destination of choice”“The Chargers are likely to deal Khalil Mack to his destination of choice. ... The Chargers will likely net an early to mid day three pick for Mack.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Daiyan Henley to move — “could leave the franchise; would likely net a mid day three pick”1Trade and Signing Calls—1000+178
Malik Herring to move to Los Angeles Chargers2Trade and Signing Calls————
Ko Kieft to move to Los Angeles Chargers3Trade and Signing Calls————
Khalil Mack to move — “likely to deal Khalil Mack to his destination of choice”4Trade and Signing Calls————
4 calls · 1 hit · 3 waiting1000

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 4 trade and signing calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

1 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Trade and Signing CallsDaiyan Henley

    Daiyan Henley to move — “could leave the franchise; would likely net a mid day three pick”

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.78difficulty+178skill
    How this was scored
    skill:
    178
    player:
    Daiyan Henley
    season:
    2026
    claimed:
    he leaves
    was with:
    LAC
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    reported:
    traded → DEN
    settled by:
    a confirmed report from the crawl (reported outcomes)
    difficulty:
    1.78
    the naive guess:
    he stays where he is
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Trade and Signing CallsMalik HerringLos Angeles Chargers

    Malik Herring to move to Los Angeles Chargers

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Trade and Signing CallsKo KieftLos Angeles Chargers

    Ko Kieft to move to Los Angeles Chargers

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Trade and Signing CallsKhalil Mack

    Khalil Mack to move — “likely to deal Khalil Mack to his destination of choice”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

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