Marcus Mosher· Oct 8, 2024
Mosher's Week 6 power rankings place the undefeated Chiefs first and the Patriots last, and along the way he calls the Commanders clear-cut NFC East favorites, tabs the Lions and Buccaneers as playoff-caliber teams, and predicts the Bears will make the playoffs.
“Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived Oct 9, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
6 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 61.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersWashington CommandersOct 8, 2024
Washington Commanders to win the division
“Through five games, the Commanders have to be considered the clear-cut favorites in the NFC East.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- won the division:
- no
- Depth Chart CallsWill LevisTennessee TitansOct 8, 2024
Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart
“coach Brian Callahan is adamant that Will Levis will start when he is 100 percent healthy”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksChicago BearsOct 8, 2024
Chicago Bears to make the playoffs
“Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-172 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- skill:
- -172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Power RankingsOct 8, 2024
“Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action: NFL Week 6 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
Hit · 89Scored 89a naive guess scored 67.38+37.2 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 37.2
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 89
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksMinnesota VikingsOct 8, 2024
Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
“The Vikings are absolutely a legit playoff contender”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+172 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- skill:
- 172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- Playoff PicksTampa Bay BuccaneersOct 8, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“they look like a sure-fire playoff team this season”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
- Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Rich EisenPlayoff Picks · Carolina PanthersHit · 100Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. He also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.