Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 8, 2024
Mosher's Week 6 power rankings place the undefeated Chiefs first and the Patriots last, and along the way they call the Commanders clear-cut NFC East favorites, tabs the Lions and Buccaneers as playoff-caliber teams, and predicts the Bears will make the playoffs.
Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original
What Marcus Mosher said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromChicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.
- Where it was published
- The 33rd Team
- The piece
- 2024 NFL Week 6 Power Rankings: Commanders Enter Top 5 | The 33rd Team
- The original
- The copy as archived Oct 9, 2024
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.
- SaidOct 8, 2024
- GradedAug 5–17, 2026
- 1Washington Commanders to win the division“Through five games, the Commanders have to be considered the clear-cut favorites in the NFC East.”
- 2Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart“coach Brian Callahan is adamant that Will Levis will start when he is 100 percent healthy”
- 3Chicago Bears to make the playoffs“Chicago might be the worst team in the NFC North, but this should be a playoff team this year.”
- 4Power Rankings“Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action: NFL Week 6 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
- 5Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs“The Vikings are absolutely a legit playoff contender”
- 6Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs“they look like a sure-fire playoff team this season”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders to win the division1 | Division Winners | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart2 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 1 | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Chicago Bears to make the playoffs3 | Playoff Picks | Missed the playoffs | 0 | 100 | −172 | |
| “Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week…”4 | Power Rankings | — | 89 | 67.38 | +37.2 | |
| Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 0 | +172 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs6 | Playoff Picks | Made the playoffs | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 6 calls · 4 hits · 2 misses · all settled | 64.8 | 61.2 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive6 checkable claims — 3 playoff picks, 1 depth chart call, 1 division winner and 1 power ranking — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 6 have settled, averaging 64.8 out of 100, against 61.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Division WinnersWashington Commanders
Washington Commanders to win the division
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.72difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- won the division:
- no
2Depth Chart CallsWill LevisTennessee Titans
Will Levis to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.72difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- TEN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Will Levis
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 13
Chicago Bears to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.72difficulty=−172skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- CHI
- skill:
- −172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- no
- weeks left when called:
- 13
“Here is our full set of rankings coming out of the fifth week of action: NFL Week 6 Power Rankings 1. Kansas City Chiefs ... 32. New England Patriots”
VerdictHit89Hit · naive 67.3889this call−67.38a naive guess=21.62better than naive×1.72difficulty=+37.2skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 37.2
- method:
- spearman
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 89
- baseline:
- 67.38
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- teams ranked:
- 32
- weeks left when called:
- 13
5Playoff PicksMinnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1.72difficulty=+172skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- MIN
- skill:
- 172
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
6Playoff PicksTampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.72difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- team:
- TB
- skill:
- 0
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive guess said:
- yes
- difficulty:
- 1.72
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 13
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
64.8naive 61.2
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Ross Jackson · Playoff Picks · New Orleans Saints · Miss 0
Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.Rich Eisen · Playoff Picks · Carolina Panthers · Hit 100
Eisen forecast the Week 18 results and the entire wild-card field: Buccaneers over Panthers but Carolina still gets in as the 5 seed when Atlanta beats New Orleans, 49ers over Seahawks, Ravens over Steelers, Jaguars beating Tennessee to win the AFC South, and six wild-card matchups (Seahawks-Panthers, Bills-Jaguars, Texans-Ravens, Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Rams-Eagles), with Houston upsetting Baltimore. They also tabbed Saints rookie Tyler Shough as a possible Offensive Rookie of the Year.Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.