Saagar Enjeti· Nov 7, 2022

In the show's final midterm predictions, he called a Republican House with a net gain of about 25 seats, and picked Republicans in nearly every competitive Senate race: Walker (after a runoff) in Georgia, Laxalt in Nevada, Masters in Arizona, Bolduc in New Hampshire, Vance in Ohio, Johnson in Wisconsin, the Republican in North Carolina, and Oz in Pennsylvania.

“I'm gonna say R plus twenty five.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

10 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 race margins, 1 control of congres and 1 seat count — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 10 have settled, averaging 56.4 out of 100, against 71.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

25They said

9What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

10 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“do you have any guests of the margin? I'm gonna say R plus twenty five... I'm shamelessly stealing that from the Coco political way. And also, what's Kyle condyck of where Crystal ball they both have the same thing.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 55-35 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
−35
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
20
baseline:
55
they said:
25
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“How about Pennsylvania. I'm gonna go with oz Man at the conqueror.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Okay, New Hampshire. It's a tough one. I'm just gonna say, Brian Baldock, I'm betting on the Red we”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“So, first of all, the House is going Republican obviously”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Wisconsin, Ron Johnson is going to hang on. They're not particularly close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Ohio jd Vance is going to win. It's not going to be particularly close.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 7, 2022
“Nevada, I'm still going to go with Adam Laxalt even after John Ralston's predictions... I think Laksolt will pull it out by maybe one point or something like that.”
Hit · 82Scored 82.2a naive guess scored 92.2-10 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−10
topic:
elections
what happened:
−0.78
in their words:
by maybe one point or something like that
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Adam Paul Laxalt
accuracy:
82.2
baseline:
92.2
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
1
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
0.78
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 7, 2022
“I think you will win narrowly by like one or two percentage points”
Close · 62Scored 61.9a naive guess scored 71.9-10 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−10
topic:
elections
what happened:
−2.81
in their words:
narrowly by like one or two percentage points
read as:
as written
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Herschel Junior Walker
accuracy:
61.9
baseline:
71.9
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
2.81
their party:
Republican
their range:
1 to 2
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Georgia, I think Herschel Walker's is gonna win... No, I don't think he'll avoid a runoff... and that ultimately will probably prevail on the runoff”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“North Carolina is another one that sort of is in that realm, same thing. I think the Republican holds on and wins there”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.