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Tyler Sullivan#27 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026

Sullivan picks the Bills 31-27 over the Lions and the Eagles to beat the Titans 27-17.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · all settled
85.7Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
59.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#27Tyler Sullivan’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Tyler Sullivan said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I'll fade Cam Ward and the Titans until they give me a reason not to.
Tyler Sullivan, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Lions-Bills predictions for Thursday, plus NFL Week 2 picks for all 16 games and ranking each starting QB
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 17–20
  3. GradedSep 18–21
  1. 1Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Titans 17“Tyler Sullivan -- Eagles (-7) 27-17 over Titans.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 27“Tyler Sullivan's pick: Bills 31-27 over Lions”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Titans 171Score PredictionsEagles 24–2085.7139.25+90.15
Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 272Score PredictionsBills 41–3185.7179.41+12.23
2 calls · 2 hits · all settled85.759.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 59.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles 27 — Titans 17

    What happenedEagles 24–20called Eagles by 10 · won by 4
    85.71Hit · naive 39.25

    Closing line (Sep 20): Eagles by 7, total 39.5 · this 27–17 calls a bigger Eagles win (by 10) and more points (44). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    24-20
    skill:
    90.15
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    39.25
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    4
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    10
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills 31 — Lions 27

    What happenedBills 41–31called Bills by 4 · won by 10
    85.71Hit · naive 79.41
    85.71this call79.41a naive guess6.3better than naive1.94difficulty+12.23skill

    Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5, total 54.5 · this 31–27 calls a closer game (Bills by 4) and more points (58).

    How this was scored
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    12.23
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    85.71
    baseline:
    79.41
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1.35
    predicted margin:
    4
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    85.7naive 59.3

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