Pat Fitzmaurice#8 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 22, 2025
Fitz calls Christian McCaffrey the ultimate boom candidate, ranking them RB5 and drafting them around the 1-2 turn; they also like Isaiah Pacheco as a small boom, believing Pacheco is still the Chiefs' best back and a bargain in the seventh or eighth round, while fading Breece Hall because of Aaron Glenn's committee talk and Justin Fields' effect on receiving work.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Fitzmaurice said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromFor me, he's a boom. He's my RB five.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Is Christian McCaffrey Worth The Risk? | BOOM Or BUST Running Backs: Draft Or Fade? (Ep. 1595)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJun 22, 2025
- GradedAug 5–19, 2026
- 1Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (right around that one two turn)“If McCaffrey is healthy, he is going to smash... Yeah, I mean I love to wait till the second but he's right around that one two turn for me.”
- 2Isiah Pacheco to outplay his draft cost (you can get him in the seventh or eighth)“This is a guy who was being drafted in the mid to late second round last year and now you can get him in the seventh or eighth... he's a small boom for me.”
- 3Isiah Pacheco to be 1st on the depth chart“I still think Pachecko is probably the best running back the Chiefs have”
- 4Christian McCaffrey to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points“For me, he's a boom. He's my RB five. I initially had him lower in my rankings this offseason, but I have moved him up”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (right around that one two turn)1 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Isiah Pacheco to outplay his draft cost (you can get him in the seventh or eighth)2 | Sleeper Calls | — | 100 | 0 | +200 | |
| Isiah Pacheco to be 1st on the depth chart3 | Depth Chart Calls | No. 2 | 91.67 | 100 | −16.67 | |
| Christian McCaffrey to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points4 | Positional Finishes | Finished #2 | 75 | 0 | +150 | |
| 4 calls · 3 hits · 1 close call · all settled | 91.7 | 25 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive4 checkable claims — 2 sleeper calls, 1 depth chart call and 1 positional finish — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 91.7 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Sleeper CallsChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to outplay his draft cost (right around that one two turn)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- right around that one two turn
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB72
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
2Sleeper CallsIsiah PachecoKansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco to outplay his draft cost (you can get him in the seventh or eighth)
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×2difficulty=+200skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- you can get him in the seventh or eighth
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Isiah Pacheco
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB63
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB52
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
3Depth Chart CallsIsiah PachecoKansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by rushing yards91.67Hit · naive 10091.67this call−100a naive guess=−8.33worse than naive×2difficulty=−16.67skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- KC
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Isiah Pacheco
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
4Positional FinishesChristian McCaffreySan Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey to finish top 5 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #2called #5 · by fantasy points75Close · naive 075this call−0a naive guess=75better than naive×2difficulty=+150skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 150
- player:
- Christian McCaffrey
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 75
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- RB
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 72
- actual finish:
- 2
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 5
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
91.7naive 25
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · Travis Hunter · Hit 100
Derek Brown ("Debro") laid out a slate of wide receiver breakouts — Ricky Pearsall, Jalen Coker, Egbuka, Jalen Waddle, Joshua Palmer, George Pickens, DeVonta Smith and Travis Hunter — while fading Xavier Worthy, Tyreek Hill and the cheap Cleveland/late-round types, and gave their own rankings well ahead of ADP for several of them.Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyreek Hill · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Derek Brown · Sleeper Calls · George Pickens · Hit 100
Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.