Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Aug 23, 2025
Brown's five-to-one breakout list was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Tucker Kraft, Ricky Pearsall, George Pickens and Tetairoa McMillan; they forecast Brian Robinson Jr. being cut or traded, Kraft finishing as a top-five/six tight end, Pickens as a top-15 receiver and McMillan spiking for double-digit touchdowns.
Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original
What Derek Brown said
Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen.
- Where it was said
- FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
- The episode
- FantasyPros - Top 10 Breakout Candidates | Middle & Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Targets (Ep. 1664)
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidAug 23, 2025
- GradedAug 5–Sep 18, 2026
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade and Signing Calls | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sleeper Calls | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Positional Finishes | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Player Season Numbers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| All | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 5 sleeper calls, 2 positional finishes, 1 player season number and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 11 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 9 have settled, averaging 50.7 out of 100, against 24.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Trade and Signing Calls1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Brian Robinson to move — “cut or traded”
“So I am forecasting that Brian Robertson Junior is cut or traded.”
Ended up with SF100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Brian Robinson
- season:
- 2025
- claimed:
- he leaves
- was with:
- WAS
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- he stays where he is
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- ended up with:
- SF
- weeks left when called:
- 18
Sleeper Calls3 hits · 2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
George Pickens to outplay his draft cost (he's being drafted as a wide receiver three)
“George Pickens, baby breakout season here... for a player that I'm comfortably ranking him aggressively as a wide receiver two and he's being drafted as a wide receiver three”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's being drafted as a wide receiver three
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR41
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP)
“Ricky Piersoll, Like he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP... I want to stay above consensus because I think the breakout is real and it's coming... this guy is heading for a huge season”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's at wide receiver forty two in ADP
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Ricky Pearsall
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR81
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR78
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Jacory Croskey-Merritt to outplay his draft cost (He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range)
“Jaquori Crosskey Merritt... He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range... I have him at RB thirty two... he's in that fringe RB two RB three conversation”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- He's sitting in those like RB sixty to seventy range
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- RB
- had to beat:
- RB24
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- RB28
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Tetairoa McMillan to outplay his draft cost (he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three)
“I've got him as a wide receiver two, he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three. And it's Tedo McMillan.”
100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- he's still being drafted in so many different formats as a wide receiver three
- naive:
- a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
- skill:
- 200
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- had to beat:
- WR36
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- WR13
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Tucker Kraft to outplay his draft cost (going is the tight end eleven)
“it's Tucker Craft. I mean, going is the tight end eleven... he's gonna have a massive breakout season”
0Miss0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- call:
- sleeper
- cost:
- going is the tight end eleven
- naive:
- he repeats last season
- skill:
- −200
- player:
- Tucker Kraft
- season:
- 2025
- correct:
- no
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- TE
- had to beat:
- TE7
- difficulty:
- 2
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual finish:
- TE17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- measured against:
- the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Positional Finishes2 missesShow ▸Hide ▾
Tucker Kraft to finish top 6 at his position, by fantasy points
“And if this all happens, that he could be sniffing like top five, top six type of production this year... the more like high end expectations for him is probably top five, top six”
Finished #17called #6 · by fantasy points8.33Miss8.33 − 16.67 naive = −8.34 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- −16.67
- player:
- Tucker Kraft
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 16.67
- position:
- TE
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 7
- actual finish:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 6
George Pickens to finish top 15 at his position, by fantasy points
“Top fifteen wide receiver top. I'm gonna stand on that top fifteen.”
Finished #4called #15 · by fantasy points8.33Miss8.33 − 0 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- George Pickens
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 12
- accuracy:
- 8.33
- baseline:
- 0
- position:
- WR
- ranked by:
- fantasy points
- difficulty:
- 2
- the naive guess:
- where he finished last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- naive finish:
- 41
- actual finish:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- predicted finish:
- 15
Player Season Numbers1 close callShow ▸Hide ▾
Tetairoa McMillan to record 10–12 receiving tds
“he could spike ten to twelve touchdowns this year”
7called 1040Close40 − 0 naive = 40 × 2 difficulty = +80 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- naive:
- 3.4
- skill:
- 80
- what happened:
- 7
- player:
- Tetairoa McMillan
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 40
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- 10
- statistic:
- receiving_tds
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- no prior season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 3.4
- zero at percent out:
- 50
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
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Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More sleeper calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Welsh · Sleeper Calls · Tyler Warren · Hit 100
Welsh drafted Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan, Travis Hunter, the Rams and Saints receivers, Justin Fields (a top-10 QB), Drake Maye (QB10-14), Travis Kelce and Tyler Warren, while passing on Joe Mixon, the Commanders backfield, Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.Pat Fitzmaurice · Sleeper Calls · Rashee Rice · Miss 0
Pat Fitzmaurice gave draft-or-pass calls: reluctant drafts on Christian McCaffrey, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillan (their WR16), Rashee Rice at a ninth-round price, Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez, Chris Olave, Drake Maye (their QB8) and Tyler Warren, with passes on Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, Croskey-Merritt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Hunter, the Rams receivers and Justin Fields.Joe Pisapia · Sleeper Calls · Tyreek Hill · Miss 0
Joey P (Joe Pisapia) played draft-or-pass on 2025 fantasy values: they passed on Christian McCaffrey at pick 7, Breece Hall, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Hunter and Chris Olave, while drafting RJ Harvey, Tyreek Hill, Tetairoa McMillan, Puka Nacua, Tyler Warren and a late-round Joe Mixon.Jake Ciely · Sleeper Calls · Braelon Allen · Miss 0
Counting down their top-five middle/late-round breakout candidates, Seely picked Bryce Young, Cedric Tillman, Braelon Allen, Marvin Mims and Rome Odunze, arguing Young can be a fringe QB1 with added rushing, Tillman and Mims are their teams' No. 2 receivers, and Caleb Williams will post a huge statistical season that lifts Odunze.