Clay Travis· Nov 4, 2024

Travis says he is most confident of all about Republicans winning back the Senate majority, counts West Virginia as a Republican pickup, and calls Bernie Moreno the next senator from Ohio and Marsha Blackburn a sure winner in Tennessee.

“I feel the most confident of all in Republicans taking back the Senate.”

said on air or in an interview · The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 3 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“She's going to win in my home state of Tennessee. She deserves to win for being right on so many things during her career.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tn
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Marsha Blackburn
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Tennessee
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marsha Blackburn
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“West Virginia is a pickup... West Virginia is a win.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Independent
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Jim Justice
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jim Justice
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 4, 2024
“I'd also add the Senate even if Trump were to lose. I feel really good about the Senate... I feel the most confident of all in Republicans taking back the Senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Bernie Marino, next Senator from the great state of Ohio, will join us at one thirty.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-oh
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Bernard F. Moreno
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
Bernard F. Moreno
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.