Colin Cowherd#54 of 87 NFL pundits · Mar 14, 2025

Cowherd laid out their full AFC predictions: division orders for all four divisions, division winners (Bills, Ravens, Texans, Chargers), wild cards (Patriots, Bengals, Chiefs), plus win-total calls on the AFC West and expectations for the Patriots to double their win total. They also predicted the Chiefs decline and named the Patriots and Titans as surprise teams.

Said on air or in an interview · The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)Hear the original

8 of 20calls landed8 hits · 1 close call · 11 misses · 2 waiting

45.3Average accuracyout of 100, across 20 calls

45.6A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

20 of 22Settled2 still waiting

#54Colin Cowherd’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Colin Cowherd said

So my division winners, I'm gonna do it like last year, with one exception, Bill's Ravens, Texans, Chargers wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs.

Colin Cowherd, the lead quote

Where it was said: The Herd with Colin Cowherd (podcast)
The episode: Hour 2 - AFC playoff predictions
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidMar 14, 2025
GradedAug 7–17, 2026

Box score, by kind

HitCloseMissWaiting

Group	Hits	Close	Misses	Waiting
Division Winners	0	0	4	0
Playoff Picks	4	0	3	0
Power Rankings	1	1	2	0
Season Win Totals	1	0	2	0
Depth Chart Calls	2	0	0	0
Surprise Team Calls	0	0	0	2
All	8	1	11	2

How each call scored

22 checkable claims — 7 playoff picks, 4 division winners, 4 power rankings, 3 season win totals, 2 depth chart calls and 2 surprise team calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 12 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

20 of 22 have settled so far, averaging 45.3 out of 100, against 45.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Division Winners4 missesShow ▸

Los Angeles Chargers to win the division
“I'm gonna go Chargers win the AFC West”
Los Angeles Chargers
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
LAC
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
KC
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“If Josh Allen is in his prime like Brady was, he will win this division going away... Bill's Patriots, Dolphins, Jets”
Buffalo Bills
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BUF
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BUF
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“AFC North, Great Division. I'm gonna go Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Brown”
Baltimore Ravens
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
BAL
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
BAL
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to win the division
“I'm gonna take the Texans, Titans, Colts, and Jags”
Houston Texans
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
HOU
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
HOU
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
no
Think this is wrong?

Playoff Picks4 hits · 3 missesShow ▸

New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs”
New England Patriots
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 0 naive = 100 × 2 difficulty = +200 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
skill:
200
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs
“wild card teams are the Patriots, Bengals, and Chiefs”
Cincinnati Bengals
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 100 naive = −100 × 2 difficulty = −200 skill
How this was scored
team:
CIN
skill:
−200
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs
“Kansas City's the wild card team”
Kansas City Chiefs
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Buffalo Bills to make the playoffs
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Buffalo Bills
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BUF
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Baltimore Ravens to make the playoffs
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Baltimore Ravens
Missed the playoffs
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
BAL
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Houston Texans to make the playoffs
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Houston Texans
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
HOU
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“I have the Bills, Ravens, Texans Chargers, and then the Patriots, Bengals che Thiefs”
Los Angeles Chargers
Made the playoffs
100Hit
100 − 100 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Power Rankings1 hit · 1 close call · 2 missesShow ▸

“I think this is an easy one. Bill's Patriots, Dolphins, Jets”
90Hit
90 − 40 naive = 50 × 2 difficulty = +100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
100
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
90
baseline:
40
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“AFC North, Great Division. I'm gonna go Ravens, Bengals, Steelers, Brown”
Cleveland Browns
25Miss
25 − 75 naive = −50 × 2 difficulty = −100 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−100
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
25
baseline:
75
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
3
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“I'm gonna take the Texans, Titans, Colts, and Jags”
30Miss
30 − 70 naive = −40 × 2 difficulty = −80 skill
How this was scored
skill:
−80
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
30
baseline:
70
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
“I'm gonna go Chargers win the AFC West. Kansas City's the wild card team, Broncos third, Raiders fourth”
70Close
70 − 60 naive = 10 × 2 difficulty = +20 skill
How this was scored
skill:
20
method:
spearman
season:
2025
accuracy:
70
baseline:
60
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
teams ranked:
4
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Season Win Totals1 hit · 2 missesShow ▸

New England Patriots to finish with 8 wins
“I think they will double their win total, no question.”
New England Patriots
14called 8
0Miss
0 − 0 naive = 0 × 2 difficulty = 0 skill
How this was scored
team:
NE
naive:
6.25
skill:
0
what happened:
14
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
they said:
8
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Los Angeles Chargers to finish with 12 wins
“I think the Chargers probably win twelve.”
Los Angeles Chargers
11called 12
80Hit
80 − 75 naive = 5 × 2 difficulty = +10 skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
naive:
9.75
skill:
10
what happened:
11
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
80
baseline:
75
they said:
12
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Kansas City Chiefs to finish with 10 wins
“I think they'll win ten or eleven games.”
Kansas City Chiefs
6called 10
20Miss
20 − 0 naive = 20 × 2 difficulty = +40 skill
How this was scored
team:
KC
naive:
11.75
skill:
40
what happened:
6
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
5
accuracy:
20
baseline:
0
they said:
10
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Depth Chart Calls2 hitsShow ▸

Drake Maye to be 2nd on the depth chart
“I think they have the second most talented quarterback in the division. I don't think it's particularly close in Drake May.”
Drake Maye New England Patriots
No. 1called No. 2 · by passing yards
91.67Hit
91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 2 difficulty = −16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NE
skill:
−16.67
player:
Drake Maye
season:
2025
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
100
position:
QB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
2
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
J.J. McCarthy to be 1st on the depth chart
“If he goes to Minnesota, my guest says he's a backup. By like October, they're gonna start JJ McCarthy.”
J.J. McCarthy Minnesota Vikings
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit
100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 2 difficulty = +16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
MIN
skill:
16.67
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?

Surprise Team Calls2 waitingShow ▸

Tennessee Titans to beat expectations
“But J. Mack likes the Titans as a surprise team. I do too, potentially as a playoff team.”
Tennessee Titans
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?
New England Patriots to beat expectations
“Patriots one of my surprise teams in the league... I think they will double their win total, no question.”
New England Patriots
—Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

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