Ian RapoportFeb 26, 2026
Rapoport says Fernando Mendoza is widely believed to be the No. 1 overall pick, predicts Kyler Murray will be released by the Cardinals, suggests Breece Hall gets a transition tag rather than a franchise tag, expects the Colts to keep Daniel Jones (long-term deal or tag) with Alec Pierce then leaving as the top receiver in free agency, and forecasts a trade-heavy offseason.
Said on air, transcribed by us · The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)Hear the original
What Ian Rapoport said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI believe he'll get released.
- Where it was said
- The Rich Eisen Show (podcast)
- The episode
- Hour 3: Live from the NFL Combine with Caleb Downs, NFL Insider Ian Rapoport & Andrew Siciliano
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 26
- GradedAug 13
- 1Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1“Obviously, Fernando Mendoza is I think everyone believes is gonna be the number one Yes, sir. Overall pick.”
- 2Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals“Here here's the argument. And I would say this. I believe he'll get released.”
- 3Alec Pierce to move“If they franchise tag him, then Alec Pierce is probably gone.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 11 | Mock Draft Picks | Went 1 | 100 | 50 | — | |
| Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals2 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| Alec Pierce to move3 | Trade and Signing Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 3 calls · 1 hit · 2 waiting | 100 | 50 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 2 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
1 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
overall pickTheir call against what actually happened.
1Mock Draft PicksFernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza to be picked at number 1
What happenedWent 1mocked at 1100Hit · naive 50Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Fernando Mendoza
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
2Trade and Signing CallsKyler MurrayArizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray to move to Arizona Cardinals
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
3Trade and Signing CallsAlec Pierce
Alec Pierce to move
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Jesse Holley · Game Outcome Picks · Arizona Cardinals · Hit 100
Jesse predicted the Cowboys finish 10-7 but still win the NFC East with 10 wins, picking Dallas over the Giants, Commanders, Texans, Buccaneers, Colts (loss), and losing to Baltimore, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Arizona, Seattle and the Rams.Garrett Podell · Game Outcome Picks · Arizona Cardinals · Miss 0
For Week 7 of the 2026 season, Podell predicts Daniel Jones plays a clean, turnover-free game against Minnesota's top-ranked defense, Bijan Robinson rushes for 150-plus yards against the undefeated 49ers, and the Cardinals upset the Broncos at home without scoring a touchdown.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Arizona Cardinals · Miss 0
In his Week 7 upset alert column, Sullivan expects the Cardinals to score in the low-to-mid 20s and beat the visiting Broncos, whose offense he views as broken under Bo Nix. He also suggests Sam Darnold's turnovers will let the Chiefs win in Seattle and remain undefeated.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Arizona Cardinals · Miss 24
Sullivan projects final scores for every Week 7 NFL game, including a comfortable Vikings home win over the Colts, a Jets win over the winless Dolphins, a Browns road win in Tennessee, another Cardinals upset over Denver, and a Bengals win in Baltimore.
More trade and signing calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.Michael David Smith · Trade and Signing Calls · Keenan Allen · Hit 100
Smith suggests the Colts are likely to grant Josh Downs' trade request given their contract situation and their recent sell-off, and that they could also try to trade Keenan Allen.