Jason Johnson· Nov 4, 2022

Johnson predicted Republicans would take both chambers, ending with about 230 House seats and about 53 Senate seats, and picked Lee Zeldin in New York and a Republican win in the New Hampshire Senate race as his biggest upsets. He also agreed DeSantis would break Florida's GOP gubernatorial margin record.

“I think we're gonna have a tsunami, but I I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans in the house end up around two... With around two thirty seats.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 2 control of congress, 2 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 30.9 out of 100, against 62.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Control of CongressNov 4, 2022
“we gotta wait until after the honeymoon, which is to say, we take the house, we take the senate”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 4, 2022
“we gotta wait until after the honeymoon, which is to say, we take the house, we take the senate”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
who controls it:
Democratic
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans in the house end up around two... With around two thirty seats.”
Close · 60Scored 60a naive guess scored 55+5 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
5
topic:
elections
what happened:
222
in their words:
around two thirty seats
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
60
baseline:
55
they said:
230
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 4, 2022
“You agree with that, Jason? Yep. I do.”
Miss · 36Scored 36a naive guess scored 0+36 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
36
topic:
elections
what happened:
19.4
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
36
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
13
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
19.4
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“So so Aaron just snatched it right away from me. I... I'm with him on Zeldin”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2022
“but I would go next. And some people might not consider this a huge upset, but I would say the the New Hampshire senate race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 4, 2022
“Same on the senate side. Right? I'm thinking we're gonna end up at about 53 seats.”
Miss · 20Scored 20a naive guess scored 80-60 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−60
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
in their words:
about 53 seats
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
20
baseline:
80
they said:
53
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?

More control of congress

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.