Chris Brockman· Apr 28, 2025

Brockman argued the Giants should start Jaxson Dart from day one, predicted Shedeur Sanders would start the most games at quarterback for the Browns in 2025, said Caleb Williams would break the Bears' single-season passing yardage and touchdown records, forecast three of the top-five drafting teams making the playoffs, and picked Carolina to win the NFC South while Tampa Bay still makes the playoffs.

“I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →

6 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers, 1 division winner and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 79.6 out of 100, against 39.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Division Winners Carolina PanthersApr 28, 2025
Carolina Panthers to win the division
“I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+200 skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
CAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Shedeur Sanders Cleveland BrownsApr 28, 2025
Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart
“Shedeur is gonna end up starting the most games at quarterback for the Browns this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
16.67
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Depth Chart Calls Jaxson Dart New York GiantsApr 28, 2025
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
“the Giants, they should just go ahead and start Jackson dart day one”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago BearsApr 28, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 3,900 passing yards
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025... 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 98Scored 97.87a naive guess scored 31.73+132.28 skill
How this was scored
naive:
2596.37
skill:
132.28
what happened:
3942
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.87
baseline:
31.73
predicted:
3900
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3541
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
Playoff Picks Tampa Bay BuccaneersApr 28, 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
“They still have a really good season. There's still a playoff team.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago BearsApr 28, 2025
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds
“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025. That's a tall order, pal. 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
Hit · 80Scored 80a naive guess scored 24.61+110.78 skill
How this was scored
naive:
16.82
skill:
110.78
what happened:
27
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
24.61
predicted:
30
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
20
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

Chris SimmsScore Predictions · New York GiantsHit · 98
Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100
Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0
Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Chicago BearsMiss · 0
Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
Marcus RayScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 19
Marcus predicted a 30-13 Buccaneers win over Cleveland with three touchdowns and three field goals, and picked the Raiders to beat a Jim Harbaugh team to start 2-0.
Ryan LaVoyScore Predictions · Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiss · 17
LaVoy predicted a 28-10 Buccaneers win over the Browns, said even the Falcons would beat Cleveland, and named Detroit, Baltimore and the Rams as teams he expects in the playoffs.

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Who this take is about

6 checkable claims in this take

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