Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Apr 28, 2025

Brockman argued the Giants should start Jaxson Dart from day one, predicted Shedeur Sanders would start the most games at quarterback for the Browns in 2025, said Caleb Williams would break the Bears' single-season passing yardage and touchdown records, forecast three of the top-five drafting teams making the playoffs, and picked Carolina to win the NFC South while Tampa Bay still makes the playoffs.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

5 of 6calls landed5 hits · 1 miss · all settled

79.6Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls

39.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

6 of 6Settlednone still waiting

#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.

Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Draft Recap: Shedeur Will End Up Starting the Most Games at QB for the Browns
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidApr 28, 2025
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Carolina Panthers to win the division“I think the Panthers are gonna win the NFC South.”
2Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart“Shedeur is gonna end up starting the most games at quarterback for the Browns this year.”
3Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart“the Giants, they should just go ahead and start Jackson dart day one”
4Caleb Williams to record 3,900 passing yards“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025... 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”
5Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs“They still have a really good season. There's still a playoff team.”
6Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds“Caleb Williams is gonna break the Bears passing and touchdown records in 2025. That's a tall order, pal. 30 touchdowns and 3,900 yards.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Carolina Panthers to win the division¹	Division Winners	—	100	0	+200
Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+16.67
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+16.67
Caleb Williams to record 3,900 passing yards⁴	Player Season Numbers	3,942	97.87	31.73	+132.28
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs⁵	Playoff Picks	Missed the playoffs	0	0	0
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds⁶	Player Season Numbers	27	80	24.61	+110.78
6 calls · 5 hits · 1 miss · all settled			79.6	39.9

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

6 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 2 player season numbers, 1 division winner and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 8 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 6 have settled, averaging 79.6 out of 100, against 39.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Division Winners Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers to win the division
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
skill:
200
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
CAR
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Shedeur Sanders Cleveland Browns
Shedeur Sanders to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
CLE
skill:
16.67
player:
Shedeur Sanders
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Jaxson Dart New York Giants
Jaxson Dart to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
NYG
skill:
16.67
player:
Jaxson Dart
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
QB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
passing yards
the naive guess:
no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams to record 3,900 passing yards
What happened3,942called 3,900
97.87Hit · naive 31.73
97.87this call31.73a naive guess66.14better than naive2difficulty+132.28skill
How this was scored
naive:
2596.37
skill:
132.28
what happened:
3942
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
97.87
baseline:
31.73
they said:
3900
statistic:
passing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
3541
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
1651.74
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
5Playoff Picks Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make the playoffs
What happenedMissed the playoffs
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
team:
TB
skill:
0
season:
2025
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
yes
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
no
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
6Player Season Numbers Caleb Williams Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams to record 30 passing tds
What happened27called 30
80Hit · naive 24.61
80this call24.61a naive guess55.39better than naive2difficulty+110.78skill
How this was scored
naive:
16.82
skill:
110.78
what happened:
27
player:
Caleb Williams
season:
2025
accuracy:
80
baseline:
24.61
they said:
30
statistic:
passing_tds
difficulty:
2
last season:
20
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
13.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once
79.6naive 39.9

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More depth chart calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Lock · Hit 100
Brener picked the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in Week 9 by a multi-score margin, giving a final score of 27-13, and expressed confidence Seattle would be fine with Drew Lock starting at quarterback.
Jeremy Brener · Depth Chart Calls · Jalen Milroe · Miss 0
Brener suggests Seattle may turn to rookie-contract quarterback Jalen Milroe for their first career start in Week 9 against the Cardinals, with Sam Darnold ruled out and Drew Lock dealing with an elbow injury.
Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.
Garrett Podell · Depth Chart Calls · Carson Beck · Miss 0
Podell argues the Cardinals have maxed out with Jacoby Brissett and that rookie Carson Beck should be ramped up to replace them as starter, targeting Week 8 at Dallas for Beck's regular-season debut.
Donnie Druin · Depth Chart Calls · Jacoby Brissett · Hit 100
Following the Cardinals' decision not to make staff or lineup changes, Druin states that Jacoby Brissett will remain Arizona's starting quarterback for another week, with rookie Carson Beck staying behind them.
Jordan Dajani · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Kendall · Miss 0
Dajani expects Cam Jurgens to move back to center as the Ravens' starter after the trade, and projects a rebuilt Eagles offensive line for Week 5 with Jordan Mailata, Willie Lampkin, Drew Kendall, Tyler Steen and Markel Bell starting from left tackle to right tackle.