Mark Morales-Smith· Sep 17, 2026
In a Week 2 start/sit column, Morales-Smith names four benched players he expects to outperform expectations: Jordan Love, Kaelon Black, Jakobi Meyers and Dalton Schultz. He also predicts Green Bay beats the Jets, San Francisco blows out Miami, and that Nico Collins won't play against Cincinnati.
“The Packers are going to torch the Jets in Green Bay”
published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Packers at Jets 12 calls
- Dolphins at 49ers 14 calls
3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay PackersSep 17, 2026
Green Bay Packers to beat Jets
“The Packers are going to torch the Jets in Green Bay, and with a shaky rushing attack and Josh Jacobs sidelined, they are going to be forced to do it through the air for the majority of the game.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ersSep 17, 2026
San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins
“he'll face off in a much better matchup against the Miami Dolphins, which will in all likelihood be a blowout ... a game they had locked up before they even stepped in the building”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SF
- score:
- 13-35
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Availability CallsNico CollinsHouston TexansSep 17, 2026
“Nico Collins is dealing with an injured hamstring and is in danger of missing Week 2. We do not expect him to be out there against the Cincinnati Bengals.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 88Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Richie BradshawScore Predictions · San Francisco 49ersHit · 83Bradshaw picks the 49ers to beat the Cardinals in their Week 3 matchup, predicting a final score of 27-14 in San Francisco's favor.
- Gregg RosenthalGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Outside of his spread picks, Rosenthal referenced his season-long pick of the Texans to win the Super Bowl and said he expects Houston to beat the Colts on Sunday.
- Jordan DajaniScore Predictions · Houston TexansClose · 40Dajani gave final-score predictions for eight Week 3 games, picking the Packers, Bengals, Jaguars, Texans, Buccaneers (upset), Ravens, Broncos (upset) and Eagles to win.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.