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Mark Morales-SmithSep 17, 2026

In a Week 2 start/sit column, Morales-Smith names four benched players he expects to outperform expectations: Jordan Love, Kaelon Black, Jakobi Meyers and Dalton Schultz. He also predicts Green Bay beats the Jets, San Francisco blows out Miami, and that Nico Collins won't play against Cincinnati.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

2 of 2calls landed2 hits · 1 waiting
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
50A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Mark Morales-Smith said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Packers are going to torch the Jets in Green Bay
Mark Morales-Smith, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Fantasy Football Bench Players To Start In Week 2: Get Dalton Schultz In Your Lineup With Nico Collins Injured
The original
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21
  1. 1Green Bay Packers to beat Jets“The Packers are going to torch the Jets in Green Bay, and with a shaky rushing attack and Josh Jacobs sidelined, they are going to be forced to do it through the air for the majority of the game.”
  2. 2San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins“he'll face off in a much better matchup against the Miami Dolphins, which will in all likelihood be a blowout ... a game they had locked up before they even stepped in the building”
  3. 3Availability Calls“Nico Collins is dealing with an injured hamstring and is in danger of missing Week 2. We do not expect him to be out there against the Cincinnati Bengals.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Green Bay Packers to beat Jets1Game Outcome PicksPackers 20–171000+194
San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins2Game Outcome Picks49ers 35–131001000
“Nico Collins is dealing with an injured hamstring and is in…”3Availability Calls————
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 waiting10050

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 availability call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 4 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 3 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to beat Jets

    What happenedPackers 20–17Packers at Jets
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Packers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Packers 62%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NYJ
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksSan Francisco 49ers

    San Francisco 49ers to beat Miami Dolphins

    What happened49ers 35–13Dolphins at 49ers
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): 49ers by 12.5 · favorite pick, 49ers about 6 in 7 (86%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    13-35
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    SF
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Availability CallsNico CollinsHouston Texans

    “Nico Collins is dealing with an injured hamstring and is in danger of missing Week 2. We do not expect him to be out there against the Cincinnati Bengals.”

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  4. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    100naive 50

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