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Nick Wright· Oct 30, 2026

Wright picked Buffalo to beat Baltimore in Lamar Jackson's return game, argued the Bills' much-maligned defense will climb to roughly 24th in the league rather than finishing 30th, expects Jacksonville to beat the Ravens four days later, and said a win in Denver would make 12 wins Kansas City's floor.

“With that said, I think Buffalo will win.”

said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →

4 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 1 position group finish and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

2 of 4 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

4 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsOct 30, 2026

    Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Baltimore Ravens

    “I already picked them to lose the Bills. I'm gonna be picking them to lose to the Jags.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+161 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    JAX
    score:
    33-10
    skill:
    161
    they picked:
    JAX
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    BAL
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 5): Jaguars by 8.5 · favorite pick, Jaguars about 4 in 5 (79%).

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksBuffalo BillsOct 30, 2026

    Buffalo Bills to beat Baltimore Ravens

    “Josh is undefeated off of a buy seven and o. I'm going with the Buffalo Bills... With that said, I think Buffalo will win.”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    10-36
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    BUF
    difficulty:
    1.61
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    11

    Closing line (Nov 1): Bills by 3 · favorite pick, Bills 59%.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Position Group FinishBuffalo BillsOct 30, 2026

    Buffalo Bills defense to be bottom 9 in the league

    “I think their defense is going to land somewhere in the low twenties, like 24 ish, something like that”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  • Season Win TotalsKansas City ChiefsOct 30, 2026

    Kansas City Chiefs to finish with ? wins

    “I mean, that 12 wins is their floor for the season. If they win this game... even if they go one and four in that five game gauntlet... that'd still be 12 wins.”

    Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.

    Think this is wrong?

What others said about the same people

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