Rich Eisen· Dec 16, 2024
Rich Eisen argued Josh Allen has clinched the MVP race after his performance in Detroit, while pushing back on the idea that Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite. He also said the Chargers won't collapse out of the playoff field, that Washington is in, and floated Detroit possibly winning the NFC North.
“But Josh Allen, I think, has ended the MVP conversation with the win in Detroit the way that he's played the last two weeks.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
4 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Division WinnersDetroit LionsDec 16, 2024
Detroit Lions to win the division
“The Lions might even win their division, pal.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- DET
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 4
- won the division:
- yes
- Award PicksJosh AllenBuffalo BillsDec 16, 2024
Josh Allen to win MVP
“But Josh Allen, I think, has ended the MVP conversation with the win in Detroit the way that he's played the last two weeks... I am now part and parcel of the the general sense... that this MVP race is over.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+122 skillHow this was scored
- award:
- mvp
- naive:
- the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
- skill:
- 122
- player:
- Josh Allen
- season:
- 2024
- winner:
- Josh Allen
- correct:
- yes
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 4
- Playoff PicksLos Angeles ChargersDec 16, 2024
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
“I know you wanna say that they're just gonna fall apart like always... I I just don't think that that they're not gonna lose... Yeah. I'm I'm gonna push back on that, Chris.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+122 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- LAC
- skill:
- 122
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 4
- Playoff PicksWashington CommandersDec 16, 2024
Washington Commanders to make the playoffs
“I think the commanders are in. Yeah. Having nine wins. Because the teams that we just mentioned, in order to make it, would have to win their divisions, which means the commanders are safe.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+122 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- WAS
- skill:
- 122
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive guess said:
- no
- difficulty:
- 1.22
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- made the playoffs:
- yes
- weeks left when called:
- 4
What others said about the same people
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles ChargersMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More playoff picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Dan "Buzz" WilsonPlayoff Picks · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Wilson argued the Eagles' offseason approach of prioritizing 2026 and beyond doesn't mean a bad 2025 — he expects them to remain among the NFC's best teams and to make a deep playoff run rather than fall off to eight or nine wins.
- Craig StoutPlayoff Picks · Kansas City ChiefsMiss · 0Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and he expects Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
- Ross JacksonPlayoff Picks · New Orleans SaintsMiss · 0Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
- Dwaine BoardPlayoff Picks · San Francisco 49ersHit · 100Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Pittsburgh SteelersHit · 100Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called his shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. He also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
- Chris BrockmanPlayoff Picks · Denver BroncosHit · 100Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.