Rich Eisen#38 of 87 NFL pundits · Dec 16, 2024

Rich Eisen argued Josh Allen has clinched the MVP race after their performance in Detroit, while pushing back on the idea that Buffalo is the Super Bowl favorite. They also said the Chargers won't collapse out of the playoff field, that Washington is in, and floated Detroit possibly winning the NFC North.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

4 of 4calls landed4 hits · all settled

100Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

25A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4 of 4Settlednone still waiting

#38Rich Eisen’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Rich Eisen said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

But Josh Allen, I think, has ended the MVP conversation with the win in Detroit the way that he's played the last two weeks.

Rich Eisen, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 15: The Bills Are Your Super Bowl Favorites
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidDec 16, 2024
GradedAug 13–17, 2026

1Detroit Lions to win the division“The Lions might even win their division, pal.”
2Josh Allen to win MVP“But Josh Allen, I think, has ended the MVP conversation with the win in Detroit the way that he's played the last two weeks... I am now part and parcel of the the general sense... that this MVP race is over.”
3Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs“I know you wanna say that they're just gonna fall apart like always... I I just don't think that that they're not gonna lose... Yeah. I'm I'm gonna push back on that, Chris.”
4Washington Commanders to make the playoffs“I think the commanders are in. Yeah. Having nine wins. Because the teams that we just mentioned, in order to make it, would have to win their divisions, which means the commanders are safe.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Detroit Lions to win the division¹	Division Winners	—	100	100	0
Josh Allen to win MVP²	Award Picks	Josh Allen won	100	0	+122
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs³	Playoff Picks	Made the playoffs	100	0	+122
Washington Commanders to make the playoffs⁴	Playoff Picks	Made the playoffs	100	0	+122
4 calls · 4 hits · all settled			100	25

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 playoff picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Division Winners Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win the division
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.22difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
method:
division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
they picked:
DET
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
DET
difficulty:
1.22
the naive guess:
last season's winner of the same division
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
4
won the division:
yes
Think this is wrong?
2Award Picks Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen to win MVP
What happenedJosh Allen won
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.22difficulty+122skill
How this was scored
award:
mvp
naive:
the naive pick was Lamar Jackson, who won it the year before
skill:
122
player:
Josh Allen
season:
2024
who won:
Josh Allen
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
4
Think this is wrong?
3Playoff Picks Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.22difficulty+122skill
How this was scored
team:
LAC
skill:
122
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
4
Think this is wrong?
4Playoff Picks Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to make the playoffs
What happenedMade the playoffs
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.22difficulty+122skill
How this was scored
team:
WAS
skill:
122
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive guess said:
no
difficulty:
1.22
weeks in the season:
18
made the playoffs:
yes
weeks left when called:
4
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 25

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More playoff picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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Craig believes better execution from a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team will be enough to return them to the playoffs in the coming season, and they expect Tyler Algeier to land with Denver as a complement to RJ Harvey.
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Jackson projects a big sophomore jump for Saints QB Tyler Shuck, laying out a Drake May-style stat line (17 starts, 72% completions, ~4,601 passing yards, 24 TDs, 9 INTs) or a Bo Nix-style consistency line (over 4,000 yards, over 20 TDs, ~10 INTs), and says either path means a playoff season for New Orleans in 2026.
Dwaine Board · Playoff Picks · San Francisco 49ers · Hit 100
Board argues the 49ers can still make the playoffs even if Trent Williams leaves, expects Williams to be brought back, and favors drafting a wide receiver at No. 27 over an offensive tackle.
Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Pittsburgh Steelers · Hit 100
Brockman argued the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Foxborough, meaning the Patriots will finish as the No. 1 seed, and called their shot that the Chargers beat Denver in Week 18. They also declared the Bears a team of destiny who will win the NFC, said the Steelers will end their playoff win drought, and that Trevor Lawrence is playing like a top-five quarterback.
Chris Brockman · Playoff Picks · Denver Broncos · Hit 100
Brockman argued the Broncos are headed to the AFC Championship Game, that the Cowboys will win the NFC East, that Green Bay is the NFC's best team, and that the Bears will finish no worse than the No. 2 seed in the NFC.