Jared Dubin· Sep 17, 2026
Dubin picks the Bills to win a shootout over the Lions 35-32 and takes the Patriots to beat the Steelers 21-13.
“Bills 35-32 over Lions”
published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 80.9 out of 100, against 68.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Lions at Bills 21 calls
- Steelers at Patriots 20 calls
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Score PredictionsNew England PatriotsSep 17, 2026
New England Patriots 21 — Steelers 13
“Jared Dubin -- Patriots (-5.5) 21-13 over Steelers.”
Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 58.29+39.34 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 3-20
- skill:
- 39.34
- they picked:
- NE
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 78.57
- baseline:
- 58.29
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 17
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- naive home margin:
- -0.52
- predicted margin:
- 8
- Score PredictionsBuffalo BillsSep 17, 2026
Buffalo Bills 35 — Lions 32
“Jared Dubin's pick: Bills 35-32 over Lions”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 79.41+7.61 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 31-41
- skill:
- 7.61
- they picked:
- BUF
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 79.41
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 10
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- naive home margin:
- 1.35
- predicted margin:
- 3
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Ralph VentreRoster Spot Calls · Christian BenfordMiss · 0Ventre expects Christian Benford's toe injury to sideline him for at least the Week 4 game against New England, and believes the Bills will have to add a cornerback to the 53-man roster this week — likely by moving Benford to injured reserve — with practice squad rookie Kani Walker the most likely player elevated.
- Carmen VitaliGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100In the show's weekly picks segment Vitali took the Broncos over the Rams, the Ravens over the Cowboys in Rio, Tampa at home over Minnesota, the Bills over the Chargers and the Eagles on the road in Chicago. She also agreed that Caleb Williams would be out roughly two to three weeks.
- Tracy SandlerGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Sandler predicted Caleb Williams would miss two to three weeks with his hamstring injury, and in the picks segment took the Broncos, Ravens, Vikings, Bills and Bears (switching off an earlier Tampa pick).
More score predictions
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 100Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Green Bay PackersMiss · 10Simms picked the Packers to beat the Falcons in the Thursday night game by a low score, expecting a defensive struggle.
- Jake ArthurScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Arthur expects a close Chiefs win on Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead, predicting a final score of 27-23 for Kansas City.
- Zach HicksScore Predictions · Kansas City ChiefsHit · 98Hicks predicts a lower-scoring, field-goal-heavy game with the Chiefs beating the Colts 23-19, citing Indianapolis' red-zone success against Kansas City historically.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 74Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonScore Predictions · Philadelphia EaglesHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.