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Jared Dubin#60 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 17, 2026

Dubin picks the Bills to win a shootout over the Lions 35-32 and takes the Patriots to beat the Steelers 21-13.

Published in writing · CBS SportsRead the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 close call · all settled
80.9Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
68.9A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#60Jared Dubin’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jared Dubin said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Bills 35-32 over Lions
Jared Dubin, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was published
CBS Sports
The piece
Lions-Bills predictions for Thursday, plus NFL Week 2 picks for all 16 games and ranking each starting QB
The original
Read the original
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  1. SaidSep 17
  2. PlayedSep 17–20
  3. GradedSep 18–21
  1. 1New England Patriots 21 — Steelers 13“Jared Dubin -- Patriots (-5.5) 21-13 over Steelers.”
  2. 2Buffalo Bills 35 — Lions 32“Jared Dubin's pick: Bills 35-32 over Lions”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
New England Patriots 21 — Steelers 131Score PredictionsPatriots 20–378.5758.29+39.34
Buffalo Bills 35 — Lions 322Score PredictionsBills 41–3183.3379.41+7.61
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 close call · all settled80.968.9

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 80.9 out of 100, against 68.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Score PredictionsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots 21 — Steelers 13

    What happenedPatriots 20–3called Patriots by 8 · won by 17
    78.57Close · naive 58.29
    78.57this call58.29a naive guess20.28better than naive1.94difficulty+39.34skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Patriots by 4.5, total 41.5 · this 21–13 calls a bigger Patriots win (by 8) and fewer points (34). Graded on the margin called, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    39.34
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    78.57
    baseline:
    58.29
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    −0.52
    predicted margin:
    8
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Score PredictionsBuffalo Bills

    Buffalo Bills 35 — Lions 32

    What happenedBills 41–31called Bills by 3 · won by 10
    83.33Hit · naive 79.41
    83.33this call79.41a naive guess3.92better than naive1.94difficulty+7.61skill

    Closing line (Sep 17): Bills by 5.5, total 54.5 · this 35–32 calls a closer game (Bills by 3) and more points (67).

    How this was scored
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    7.61
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    79.41
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1.35
    predicted margin:
    3
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    80.9naive 68.9

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

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