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Jared Dubin· Sep 17, 2026

Dubin picks the Bills to win a shootout over the Lions 35-32 and takes the Patriots to beat the Steelers 21-13.

“Bills 35-32 over Lions”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 score predictions — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 80.9 out of 100, against 68.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • New England Patriots 21 — Steelers 13

    “Jared Dubin -- Patriots (-5.5) 21-13 over Steelers.”

    Close · 79Scored 78.57a naive guess scored 58.29+39.34 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    3-20
    skill:
    39.34
    they picked:
    NE
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    78.57
    baseline:
    58.29
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    17
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    -0.52
    predicted margin:
    8

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  • Buffalo Bills 35 — Lions 32

    “Jared Dubin's pick: Bills 35-32 over Lions”

    Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 79.41+7.61 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    31-41
    skill:
    7.61
    they picked:
    BUF
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    83.33
    baseline:
    79.41
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    10
    weeks left when called:
    17
    naive home margin:
    1.35
    predicted margin:
    3

    Think this is wrong?

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