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ESPNJul 15, 2025

As read out on air, ESPN's poll of coaches, executives and scouts ranked the NFL's top 10 quarterbacks, with Patrick Mahomes first and Baker Mayfield tenth (Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud honorable mentions).

Said on air or in an interview · The Dan Patrick Show (podcast)Hear the original

44Close · out of 100
Top Player ListsThe callsettled
50A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
44.24This callout of 100
−11.52Skillafter difficulty

What ESPN said

Mahomes One, Josh Allen Two, Joe Burrow Three, Lamar Jackson Four.
ESPN’s words, quoted for attribution
The episode
Dan Beyer & Monse Bolanos on QB Rankings & Jacob Misiorowski
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidJul 15, 2025
  2. GradedAug 5, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 44.2 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Top Player Lists

    “so here were the rankings... Mahomes One, Josh Allen To Joe burrow Three Lamar jackson Four... Jayde daniels was Five... stafford is Sixth then you Have Justin Herbert, then you Have Jared goff, then you Have jalen hurts and then you Have Baker Mayfield... number Ten... they Said Jordan love and C. J stroud were honorable mention”

    VerdictClose
    44.24Close · naive 50
    44.24this call50a naive guess−5.76worse than naive2difficulty−11.52skill
    How this was scored
    naive:
    a coin-flip ordering scores 50
    skill:
    −11.52
    placed:
    10
    season:
    2025
    players:
    10
    accuracy:
    44.24
    baseline:
    50
    by position:
    QB 10: 44.24
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    could not place:
    0
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

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