Nick Wright· Sep 18, 2026
Wright stuck by his preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as his deep sleeper, counts New England among his 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
“this year, I have them going twelve and five winning the division and being really good.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
8 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 position group finish and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.
Where this call stands in the room
Buffalo Bills · 2026 season · wins9 calls from 6 pundits between 10 wins and 13 wins. Nick Wright said 12 wins. the room's median is 11 wins. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
The games in this take
- Bengals at Texans 26 calls
- Jaguars at Broncos 38 calls
8 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Game Outcome PicksJacksonville JaguarsSep 18, 2026
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos
“The Jags are better. They went to Denver last year and curb stomped them... They're gonna win outright.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-194 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- -194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Game Outcome PicksHouston TexansSep 18, 2026
Houston Texans to beat Bengals
“So I guess we're gonna make a clean sweep in that I also am leaning Texans.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 20-6
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
- Surprise Team CallsAtlanta FalconsSep 18, 2026
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
“That gentleman is starting officially for Atlanta. They're still my deep sleeper.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsWashington CommandersSep 18, 2026
Washington Commanders to finish with 5–6 wins
“I thought the commanders would be a I think I had him going five and twelve or six and eleven”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Season Win TotalsBuffalo BillsSep 18, 2026
Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins
“this year, I have them going twelve and five winning the division and being really good.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Division WinnersBuffalo BillsSep 18, 2026
Buffalo Bills to win the division
“I have them going twelve and five winning the division”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Playoff PicksNew England PatriotsSep 18, 2026
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
“And of all my 14 playoff picks, I am most nervous, deep sleeper accepted, about the Patriots.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Position Group FinishWashington CommandersSep 18, 2026
Washington Commanders defense to be ? in the league
“I thought the defense was gonna be a bottom six or seven defense in football.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Jacksonville JaguarsClose · 50Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Buffalo BillsHit · 100Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Houston TexansMiss · 0Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Jacksonville JaguarsMiss · 0Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.