Nick Wright#49 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026
Wright stuck by their preseason call of a 12-5 Bills team that wins its division, picked the Jaguars to beat Denver outright, leaned Texans over Cincinnati, still has Atlanta as their deep sleeper, counts New England among their 14 playoff teams, and recalled pegging Washington for a 5-12 or 6-11 year with a bottom-six defense.
Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original
What Nick Wright said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromthis year, I have them going twelve and five winning the division and being really good.
- Where it was said
- First Things First (podcast)
- The episode
- Bills beat Lions, Week 2 Upset Alert and Nick’s Picks, Will Mahomes have a ‘monster game’?
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 18
- PlayedSep 20
- GradedSep 21
- 1Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos“The Jags are better. They went to Denver last year and curb stomped them... They're gonna win outright.”
- 2Houston Texans to beat Bengals“So I guess we're gonna make a clean sweep in that I also am leaning Texans.”
- 3Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins“this year, I have them going twelve and five winning the division and being really good.”
- 4Buffalo Bills to win the division“I have them going twelve and five winning the division”
- 5New England Patriots to make the playoffs“And of all my 14 playoff picks, I am most nervous, deep sleeper accepted, about the Patriots.”
- 6Washington Commanders to finish with 5–6 wins“I thought the commanders would be a I think I had him going five and twelve or six and eleven”
- 7Position Group Finish“I thought the defense was gonna be a bottom six or seven defense in football.”
- 8Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations“That gentleman is starting officially for Atlanta. They're still my deep sleeper.”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos1 | Game Outcome Picks | Broncos 20–13 | 0 | 100 | −194 | |
| Houston Texans to beat Bengals2 | Game Outcome Picks | Bengals 20–6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins3 | Season Win Totals | — | — | — | — | |
| Buffalo Bills to win the division4 | Division Winners | — | — | — | — | |
| New England Patriots to make the playoffs5 | Playoff Picks | — | — | — | — | |
| Washington Commanders to finish with 5–6 wins6 | Season Win Totals | — | — | — | — | |
| “I thought the defense was gonna be a bottom six or seven…”7 | Position Group Finish | — | — | — | — | |
| Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations8 | Surprise Team Calls | — | — | — | — | |
| 8 calls · 2 misses · 6 waiting | 0 | 50 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive8 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks, 2 season win totals, 1 division winner, 1 playoff pick, 1 position group finish and 1 surprise team call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 1 unsettled call enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands above the rest of the room.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Where this call stands in the room
Buffalo Bills · 2026 season · wins7 calls from 4 pundits between 10 wins and 14 wins. Nick Wright said 12 wins. the room's median is 11 wins. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
1Game Outcome PicksJacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat Broncos
What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos0Miss · naive 1000this call−100a naive guess=−100worse than naive×1.94difficulty=−194skillClosing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · underdog pick, Jaguars 43%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DEN
- score:
- 13-20
- skill:
- −194
- they picked:
- JAX
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
2Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans
Houston Texans to beat Bengals
What happenedBengals 20–6Bengals at Texans0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1.94difficulty=0skillClosing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 57%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CIN
- score:
- 20-6
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- HOU
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- HOU
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
3Season Win TotalsBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to finish with 12 wins
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
4Division WinnersBuffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win the division
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
5Playoff PicksNew England Patriots
New England Patriots to make the playoffs
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
6Season Win TotalsWashington Commanders
Washington Commanders to finish with 5–6 wins
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
7Position Group FinishWashington Commanders
“I thought the defense was gonna be a bottom six or seven defense in football.”
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
8Surprise Team CallsAtlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to beat expectations
VerdictWaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once
0naive 50
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on eachWho this take is about
Others on the same people
Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picks the Commanders to edge the Giants 21-20 on Thursday and the Chiefs to beat the Falcons 26-20 in Week 10.Tyler Sullivan · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Sullivan takes the Commanders 24-21 over the Giants on Thursday night and calls for a Steelers upset of the Bengals, 27-24, in Week 10.John Breech · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 90
Breech picks the Commanders to upset the Giants on Thursday night, 24-17, and takes the Texans to beat the Browns 24-16 in Week 10 behind a pass rush that should batter Deshaun Watson.Jordan Dajani · Score Predictions · Washington Commanders · Hit 95
Dajani picked seven Week 10 games with final scores, including a Commanders upset of the Giants, Lions over the Patriots in Munich, Chiefs over the Falcons, Packers edging the Vikings, 49ers over the Cowboys, Bengals over the Steelers and Ravens over the Chargers. They also suggested Joe Burrow could win MVP this season.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Gilberto Manzano · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Manzano picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Browns, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.John Pluym · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Pluym picked the Giants, Patriots, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Colts, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.