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Andrew Hughes· Oct 19, 2026

Hughes argues the Buccaneers are the team closest to a teardown and a natural trade partner for the Bears, and expects Tampa Bay to lose its next three games — to Carolina, Atlanta and Chicago — heading into the November 10 trade deadline.

“That could be an 0-3 stretch right before the trade deadline, and a subsequent sell-off.”

published in writing · Sports Illustrated · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 game outcome picks — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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Who this take is about

The games in this take

3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  • Game Outcome PicksChicago BearsOct 19, 2026

    Chicago Bears to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    “The Bears face the Buccaneers two days before the NFL trade deadline... That could be an 0-3 stretch right before the trade deadline”

    Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    24-27
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksAtlanta FalconsOct 19, 2026

    Atlanta Falcons to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    “Before traveling to Soldier Field, Tampa Bay faces the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta. That could be an 0-3 stretch right before the trade deadline”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-172 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    TB
    score:
    0-16
    skill:
    −172
    they picked:
    ATL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    TB
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Think this is wrong?

  • Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersOct 19, 2026

    Carolina Panthers to beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    “Before traveling to Soldier Field, Tampa Bay faces the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta. That could be an 0-3 stretch right before the trade deadline”

    Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
    How this was scored
    won:
    TB
    score:
    43-13
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CAR
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CAR
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13

    Closing line (Oct 25): Panthers by 3 · favorite pick, Panthers 60%.

    Think this is wrong?

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