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Chris Brockman#36 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 13, 2025

Brockman argued the Commanders and Jayden Daniels will win in Detroit, beating the NFC's No. 1 seed, and separately that Mike Vrabel will produce a winning record (roughly 9-8) for New England next season.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 2calls landed1 hit · 1 miss · all settled
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 2 calls
27.5A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
2 of 2Settlednone still waiting
#36Chris Brockman’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Chris Brockman said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
Jaden Daniels is gonna do what CJ Stroud couldn't last year. He's gonna beat the one seed.
Chris Brockman, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
Overreaction Monday (podcast)
The episode
NFL Wild Card Weekend: Jayden Daniels is Going to Beat the 1-Seed
The original
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  1. SaidJan 13, 2025
  2. GradedAug 13, 2026
  1. 1New England Patriots to finish with 9 wins“Mike Vrabel's gonna lead the Patriots to a winning record next year. Let's go. ... to say you're gonna be nine and eight next year”
  2. 2Washington Commanders to beat Detroit Lions“Jaden Daniels is gonna do what CJ Stroud couldn't last year. He's gonna beat the one seed.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
New England Patriots to finish with 9 wins1Season Win Totals4055−55
Washington Commanders to beat Detroit Lions2Game Outcome Picks—1000+100
2 calls · 1 hit · 1 miss · all settled5027.5

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 27.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

wins
9They said
4What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

  1. 1Season Win TotalsNew England Patriots

    New England Patriots to finish with 9 wins

    What happened4called 9
    0Miss · naive 55
    0this call55a naive guess−55worse than naive1difficulty−55skill
    How this was scored
    team:
    NE
    naive:
    6.25
    skill:
    −55
    what happened:
    4
    season:
    2024
    zero credit this far off:
    5
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    55
    they said:
    9
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksWashington Commanders

    Washington Commanders to beat Detroit Lions

    VerdictHit
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1difficulty+100skill

    Closing line (Jan 18): Lions by 8.5 · underdog pick, Commanders about 1 in 5 (20%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    WAS
    score:
    45-31
    skill:
    100
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2024
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    DET
    difficulty:
    1
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    0
    Think this is wrong?
  3. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 2 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 27.5

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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