Chris Brockman· Jan 13, 2025
Brockman argued the Commanders and Jayden Daniels will win in Detroit, beating the NFC's No. 1 seed, and separately that Mike Vrabel will produce a winning record (roughly 9-8) for New England next season.
“Jaden Daniels is gonna do what CJ Stroud couldn't last year. He's gonna beat the one seed.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Overreaction Monday (podcast) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 game outcome pick and 1 season win total — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 2 have settled, averaging 50 out of 100, against 27.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
wins9They said
4What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Season Win TotalsNew England PatriotsJan 13, 2025
New England Patriots to finish with 9 wins
“Mike Vrabel's gonna lead the Patriots to a winning record next year. Let's go. ... to say you're gonna be nine and eight next year”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 55-55 skillHow this was scored
- team:
- NE
- naive:
- 6.25
- skill:
- -55
- what happened:
- 4
- season:
- 2024
- zero at:
- 5
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 55
- predicted:
- 9
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Game Outcome PicksWashington CommandersJan 13, 2025
Washington Commanders to beat Detroit Lions
“Jaden Daniels is gonna do what CJ Stroud couldn't last year. He's gonna beat the one seed.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 45-31
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- WAS
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DET
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
What others said about the same people
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Chris BroussardGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Broussard picked the Bills to beat the Chargers in a competitive, higher-scoring game, said the Chiefs will rout the Dolphins, and for upset alert parlayed the Patriots over the Jaguars and the Raiders over the Saints. He also restated his Cowboys-versus-Ravens Super Bowl matchup pick.
- Danny ParkinsGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0In the winners-only chips segment Parkins backed the Patriots over the Jaguars, the Bengals over the Steelers and the Ravens over the Cowboys in Brazil. He also said New England has a real shot at a top-10 defense and that Kayshon/Romeo Dobbs will be the Patriots' number one target.
- Mark WahlbergGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsMiss · 0Wahlberg went game-by-game through the Patriots' schedule and predicted a 14-3 season, with losses only at Buffalo, to the Lions in Germany, and at Kansas City.
- David HarrisonGame Outcome Picks · Washington CommandersHit · 100Harrison lays out a path for the Washington Commanders to exceed their 7.5-win total, identifying eight specific games he projects them to win: home vs. Seattle (Week 3), vs. Indianapolis in London (Week 4), a sweep of the Giants (Weeks 5 and 10), at Arizona (Week 12), at Tennessee (Week 13), vs. Atlanta (Week 15) and vs. Dallas (Week 18). He also says the Bengals (Week 11) and Texans (Week 14) games are winnable.
- Ethan HurwitzRoster Spot Calls · Jeremiah Pharms Jr.Miss · 0Hurwitz writes that the elevations of Jeremiah Pharms Jr. and Mike Brown likely mean Leonard Taylor III stays a healthy scratch and Joshua Farmer could be one too for the Week 3 game at Jacksonville, and that both elevated players will revert to the practice squad after Sunday.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.