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Eric Mangini#86 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 11, 2026

Mangini's upset alert was Washington over Philadelphia; in the chips segment they backed Houston, Dallas and Denver; and their Monday headline was Cincinnati mauling Tampa Bay, with Joe Burrow as their MVP and the Bengals as AFC North champs.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 5calls landed1 hit · 4 misses · 2 waiting
20Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
80A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Games calledeveryone’s picks below
#86Eric Mangini’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Eric Mangini said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
The Washington Commandments... in week one, where everybody thinks Washington is pretty much dead, dead on arrival, they're gonna show some life.
Eric Mangini, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
49ers beat Rams, Bills vs. Texans preview, Matt Leinart joins, Upset Alert & Nick’s Picks for Week 1
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 11
  2. PlayedSep 13–14
  3. GradedSep 15–16
  1. 1Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City“as much as I wanna go with Patrick, because I love him, I'm going with Denver too, but only with two.”
  2. 2Washington Commanders to beat Philadelphia“The Washington Commandments... If Washington beats Philadelphia, coach gets eight and a half points.”
  3. 3Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers“This cat can still play. Buccaneers get mauled in the jungle by Joe Burrow and the Bengals.”
  4. 4Houston Texans to beat Bills“So that being said, I see more sacks, more turnovers, and I'm going three for the Texans.”
  5. 5Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants“I feel so confident about it. I'm going, no. 10 on the Dallas Cowboys.”
  6. 6Cincinnati Bengals to win the division“We both had them in the AFC North Champs.”
  7. 7Joe Burrow to win MVP“Ed Burrow is my MVP. Ed Burrow is your MVP.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City1Game Outcome PicksChiefs 31–100100−200
Washington Commanders to beat Philadelphia2Game Outcome PicksEagles 24–220100−200
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers3Game Outcome PicksBengals 33–271001000
Houston Texans to beat Bills4Game Outcome PicksBills 36–31000
Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants5Game Outcome PicksGiants 28–200100−200
Cincinnati Bengals to win the division6Division Winners————
Joe Burrow to win MVP7Award Picks————
7 calls · 1 hit · 4 misses · 2 waiting2080

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

7 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 1 award pick and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

5 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 20 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Kansas City

    What happenedChiefs 31–10Broncos at Chiefs
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 14): Chiefs by 2.5 · underdog pick, Broncos 46%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    10-31
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksWashington Commanders

    Washington Commanders to beat Philadelphia

    What happenedEagles 24–22Commanders at Eagles
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Eagles by 6 · underdog pick, Commanders about 1 in 3 (32%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    PHI
    score:
    22-24
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    WAS
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    PHI
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to beat Buccaneers

    What happenedBengals 33–27Buccaneers at Bengals
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bengals by 3.5 · favorite pick, Bengals about 2 in 3 (64%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    27-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CIN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CIN
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Bills

    What happenedBills 36–31Bills at Texans
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Bills by 1.5 · a toss-up, Bills 50%, Texans 50%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    BUF
    score:
    36-31
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksDallas Cowboys

    Dallas Cowboys to beat Giants

    What happenedGiants 28–20Cowboys at Giants
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill

    Closing line (Sep 13): Cowboys by 3 · favorite pick, Cowboys 60%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    NYG
    score:
    20-28
    skill:
    −200
    they picked:
    DAL
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    NYG
    difficulty:
    2
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    18
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Division WinnersCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to win the division

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Award PicksJoe BurrowCincinnati Bengals

    Joe Burrow to win MVP

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  8. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once

    20naive 80

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Where do you stand on this one?Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

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