Derek Brown#12 of 87 NFL pundits · Jun 29, 2025

Brown names Ricky Pearsall a second-year wide receiver breakout they want everywhere, prefers them to Stefon Diggs, calls Kaleb Johnson a top-24 running back who can win leagues, and says JJ McCarthy will be a QB1 in 2025.

Said on air or in an interview · FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)Hear the original

1 of 4calls landed1 hit · 3 misses · all settled

25Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

25A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4 of 4Settlednone still waiting

#12Derek Brown’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Derek Brown said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

So it's Ricky Piersow baby... So I want to draft him everywhere.

Derek Brown, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: FantasyPros Fantasy Football Podcast (podcast)
The episode: FantasyPros - BREAKOUTS! | Fantasy Football Players Who Will Dominate In 2025 (Ep. 1600)
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

SaidJun 29, 2025
GradedAug 5–19, 2026

1Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (He's ranked as an RB three on Fantasy pross are right now)“I love Caleb Johnson. He's ranked as an RB three on Fantasy pross are right now, he should be a top twenty four running back.”
2Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (the forty six wide receiver)“So it's Ricky Piersow baby, final two weeks of the regular season, who's wide receiver? Seven wide receiver fourteen fully believed? ... So I want to draft him everywhere.”
3Kaleb Johnson to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points“he should be a top twenty four running back”
4J.J. McCarthy to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points“JJ McCarthy is a QB one. He's breaking out in twenty twenty five.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (He's ranked as an RB three on Fantasy pross are right now)¹	Sleeper Calls	—	0	100	−200
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (the forty six wide receiver)²	Sleeper Calls	—	100	0	+200
Kaleb Johnson to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points³	Positional Finishes	Finished #104	0	0	0
J.J. McCarthy to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points⁴	Positional Finishes	Finished #32	0	0	0
4 calls · 1 hit · 3 misses · all settled			25	25

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 2 positional finishes and 2 sleeper calls — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 5 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 25 out of 100, against 25 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Sleeper Calls Kaleb Johnson Pittsburgh Steelers
Kaleb Johnson to outplay his draft cost (He's ranked as an RB three on Fantasy pross are right now)
VerdictMiss
0Miss · naive 100
0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive2difficulty−200skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
He's ranked as an RB three on Fantasy pross are right now
naive:
a player with no record returns what an unknown at his position is worth
skill:
−200
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
correct:
no
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
position:
RB
had to beat:
RB24
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
RB104
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost, and he has no prior season — measured against the startable tier
Think this is wrong?
2Sleeper Calls Ricky Pearsall
Ricky Pearsall to outplay his draft cost (the forty six wide receiver)
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive2difficulty+200skill
How this was scored
call:
sleeper
cost:
the forty six wide receiver
naive:
he repeats last season
skill:
200
player:
Ricky Pearsall
season:
2025
correct:
yes
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
position:
WR
had to beat:
WR81
difficulty:
2
weeks in the season:
18
actual finish:
WR78
weeks left when called:
18
measured against:
the source named no cost — measured against his own 2024 finish
Think this is wrong?
3Positional Finishes Kaleb Johnson Pittsburgh Steelers
Kaleb Johnson to finish top 24 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #104called #24 · by fantasy points
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
Kaleb Johnson
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
RB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at RB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
24
actual finish:
104
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
24
Think this is wrong?
4Positional Finishes J.J. McCarthy Minnesota Vikings
J.J. McCarthy to finish top 12 at his position, by fantasy points
What happenedFinished #32called #12 · by fantasy points
0Miss · naive 0
0this call0a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
skill:
0
player:
J.J. McCarthy
season:
2025
zero credit this far off:
12
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
position:
QB
ranked by:
fantasy points
difficulty:
2
the naive guess:
no prior season — the startable tier at QB
weeks in the season:
18
naive finish:
12
actual finish:
32
weeks left when called:
18
predicted finish:
12
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
25naive 25

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Patricia Traina · Trade and Signing Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Traina expects defensive tackle to be a top need for the Giants in next year's draft, and suggests the Giants could trade J.J. McCarthy next offseason — or keep both them and Jaxson Dart if the return isn't good enough. They also expect Dart to make a full recovery.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.
Bryan DeArdo · Trade and Signing Calls · Joey Porter Jr. · Miss 0
The piece predicts Joey Porter Jr. most likely stays with the Steelers through 2026, while listing possible trade destinations if they were moved.

More sleeper calls

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.